Europe. In or out?

[Hubble]

I see the "Leave" victory as a positive development.

I follow the rationale of all the gloomy forecasts, but I consider most of them to be short-term outcomes, against which a release from EU shackles is well worth the price. It is a huge challenge for whoever takes over the helm in the UK, both now and after the next election - but Britain succeeded economically before 1973, and I believe that it has the resources, inventiveness and tenacity to overcome these obstacles and to thrive once more as a free-trade nation - coupled with low regulation and its own justice system. The horizons of our vision are so clouded by having to work for so many years under the Brussels yoke, that we appear tentative when given the opportunity to prove the worth of independence and, above all, self-determination.

Some refer to us having 'derided the so-called experts', and their 'well-intended advice'. These experts have a forecasting knack that has been proved wrong on every single occasion that matters - and that goes for the three major credit rating agencies too. They may downgrade our sovereign debt (and I am fully aware of the hazards of our current account deficit) but I believe that a post-Carney, post-Osborne Central Banker worth his/her salt will steer us through that one.

In 1945 Germany was in a state of utter devastation - physically and financially - but the genius of Ludwig Erhard disregarded conventional economic wisdom and introduced policies that ran counter to those of Keynes and his demand-management cronies, and got German industry and productivity going at a pace that has not slackened to this day. He got Germans off rationing and onto sound money long before Britain and America. He was a free thinker: when counselled by his US peers that his policies would fail, he replied " my own advisers tell me the same thing!"

To return: Brexit is not, and was not, the problem. The problem is the widening gulf between the ultra-rich and the working classes - but for that you can thank the money-printing lunatics we call central bankers. Where do you think all that money goes? Not to the poor, certainly. To quote from one of my own recent articles: "No one, not even the chief of BP, should be paid a salary of £14 million, and no opaque assemblage of facts and figures thrust before a remuneration committee can justify the obscenity of paying a man more in one month than many will earn in a lifetime of work...... When the FTSE 100 Index stands at the same level as 18 years ago and 10% below its peak, why has executive pay over the same period more than trebled, with a rising disparity between average and top pay?"

Paradoxically, this has little directly to do with membership of the EU, but rather the pursuit of insane economic policies in every advanced economy, EU included. Brexit simply revealed the nexus of frustration of the disenfranchised millions who saw it (felt it, rather) as an opportunity to upend the iniquities of policies they didn't understand intellectually, but detested instinctively. They too, after all, are entitled to refer to Britain as "my country". So their reasons for voting to leave the EU are not necessarily rational, but strongly visceral, and hence are different from mine, and from those of the economists who are able objectively to observe where the blind pursuit of EU-wide fallacies are leading.

I don't know which of the doom-laden outcomes enumerated by Remainers will manifest beyond the period of short-term market disturbances and distortions - nor does anyone know. But I suspect that none of them is permanent, and I would hate to rely on the idiots running central banks or power-crazy EU mega-configurations to plan the way forward for us.

Sensible post, well argued. Although I think what you might have missed is that Erhard and Germany benefited massively form the Marshall plan - whereas the UK was hit by the sudden cut off of Lend-Lease funding - and of course Germany had no army to run, so a clean slate start for them.

[Hubble]

I know some of you have an allergic reaction to reading the Guardian, but this is the most intelligent analysis of Brexit I've read yet, and interestingly, it's from Irvine Welsh. Seriously worth a read IMHO:

"Remain’s leaders would have kept us straitjacketed into the EU’s current death-by-a-thousand-cuts version of corporate neoliberalism. At least now, shed of that distraction, we have our governmental elites much more clearly in our sights. How smaller, shabbier and curiously more vulnerable they look, without that EU cloak they avowed to detest draped around their shoulders. And this is as it should be, as they’ve basically put everything into play."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/beauty-beneath-brexit-bedwetting-leave-vote-diversity-genuine-change

[Snaxo]

I know some of you have an allergic reaction to reading the Guardian, but this is the most intelligent analysis of Brexit I've read yet, and interestingly, it's from Irvine Welsh. Seriously worth a read IMHO:

"Remain’s leaders would have kept us straitjacketed into the EU’s current death-by-a-thousand-cuts version of corporate neoliberalism. At least now, shed of that distraction, we have our governmental elites much more clearly in our sights. How smaller, shabbier and curiously more vulnerable they look, without that EU cloak they avowed to detest draped around their shoulders. And this is as it should be, as they’ve basically put everything into play."

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...genuine-change

Yes, def worth a read - thanks for posting!

[jmelanie]

I see the "Leave" victory as a positive development.

I follow the rationale of all the gloomy forecasts, but I consider most of them to be short-term outcomes, against which a release from EU shackles is well worth the price. It is a huge challenge for whoever takes over the helm in the UK, both now and after the next election - but Britain succeeded economically before 1973, and I believe that it has the resources, inventiveness and tenacity to overcome these obstacles and to thrive once more as a free-trade nation - coupled with low regulation and its own justice system. The horizons of our vision are so clouded by having to work for so many years under the Brussels yoke, that we appear tentative when given the opportunity to prove the worth of independence and, above all, self-determination.

Some refer to us having 'derided the so-called experts', and their 'well-intended advice'. These experts have a forecasting knack that has been proved wrong on every single occasion that matters - and that goes for the three major credit rating agencies too. They may downgrade our sovereign debt (and I am fully aware of the hazards of our current account deficit) but I believe that a post-Carney, post-Osborne Central Banker worth his/her salt will steer us through that one.

In 1945 Germany was in a state of utter devastation - physically and financially - but the genius of Ludwig Erhard disregarded conventional economic wisdom and introduced policies that ran counter to those of Keynes and his demand-management cronies, and got German industry and productivity going at a pace that has not slackened to this day. He got Germans off rationing and onto sound money long before Britain and America. He was a free thinker: when counselled by his US peers that his policies would fail, he replied " my own advisers tell me the same thing!"

To return: Brexit is not, and was not, the problem. The problem is the widening gulf between the ultra-rich and the working classes - but for that you can thank the money-printing lunatics we call central bankers. Where do you think all that money goes? Not to the poor, certainly. To quote from one of my own recent articles: "No one, not even the chief of BP, should be paid a salary of £14 million, and no opaque assemblage of facts and figures thrust before a remuneration committee can justify the obscenity of paying a man more in one month than many will earn in a lifetime of work...... When the FTSE 100 Index stands at the same level as 18 years ago and 10% below its peak, why has executive pay over the same period more than trebled, with a rising disparity between average and top pay?"

Paradoxically, this has little directly to do with membership of the EU, but rather the pursuit of insane economic policies in every advanced economy, EU included. Brexit simply revealed the nexus of frustration of the disenfranchised millions who saw it (felt it, rather) as an opportunity to upend the iniquities of policies they didn't understand intellectually, but detested instinctively. They too, after all, are entitled to refer to Britain as "my country". So their reasons for voting to leave the EU are not necessarily rational, but strongly visceral, and hence are different from mine, and from those of the economists who are able objectively to observe where the blind pursuit of EU-wide fallacies are leading.

I don't know which of the doom-laden outcomes enumerated by Remainers will manifest beyond the period of short-term market disturbances and distortions - nor does anyone know. But I suspect that none of them is permanent, and I would hate to rely on the idiots running central banks or power-crazy EU mega-configurations to plan the way forward for us.

It also needs to be mentioned that is was West Germany not Germany. East Germany was a completely different story.

[Stanley]

Jexit ??

[Hove Ranger]

The coup will fail Stan mate as Corbyn is too popular with the membership and the unions. Angela eagle hasn't put her hat in the ring because of chilcot being released today. Hilary benn and Tristram hunt have failed embarrassingly with this coup and should stand down once Jezza's position is strengthened if there even is another leadership vote. This all goes to highlighting how broad the perspective is within the labour party among other things

[jmelanie]

Second female PM

Theresa May v Andrea Leadsom

[Jimmy Floyd Rabbit]

Second female PM

Theresa May v Andrea Leadsom

Like choosing between warts on your bell end or scabs all over your face

[Ćock-a-Hoop]

What a great first post - welcome to the forum. Well articulated.

Actually, in principal I agree with a lot of what you said - I just don't share your optimism that we can navigate out of this in the way you hope. I don't think we have the calibre of politicians, or resources in general, to do so. I think we are also far too heavily reliant on the financial services industry and we don't even know what the plans of many of the big (non UK owned) players there are yet.

I also don't share the level of pessimism you have regarding 'EU shackles'. I still believe there are many positives to partnering at that level with our counterparts in Europe. It's far from perfect, we all know that, but I'd prefer a seat at the table to not having one.

Sensible post, well argued. Although I think what you might have missed is that Erhard and Germany benefited massively form the Marshall plan - whereas the UK was hit by the sudden cut off of Lend-Lease funding - and of course Germany had no army to run, so a clean slate start for them.

Thank you for the welcome. These are worthy responses, certainly thoughtful and intelligent.

A week's observation in Brexitland

Brexit has proved the catalyst for releasing forces of social discontent and disillusion, not only in Britain but, it seems, in several other countries in the EU too. In that sense, Brexit is something of a sideshow. It highlighted a huge divide between politicians as a governing class and the broad masses who no longer believe that they are being governed with their own welfare (in the true sense) in mind.

Unfortunately, while Brexit may, in that sense, have lifted the scales from our eyes, the resulting vision does not extend into the cause of the malaise whose next manifestation will be a banking inferno (commencing in Southern sovereign states) and an ensuing currency meltdown as a prelude to the demise of paper money. The banks of Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece would, but for (i) massive credit transfers from Northern states and (ii) M.Draghi's determination to flood them with the ECB's fiat euros, be hovering right now between insolvency and outright bankruptcy.

This flawed arrangement, as an economic policy designed to do "whatever it takes" to salvage the euro, is today's most blatant exercise in wishful thinking. Central Bankers everywhere (including Yellen and Carney) have succumbed to the lure of an economic salvation that is incapable of realisation. Once the governments of these failing states face the fact that they are caught in a debt trap from which there is no escape, serious civil unrest will follow in the wake of unpaid public sector wages and debt redemptions that can never be honoured. (We have already had more than a hint of this in the UK, where holders of bonds in property portfolios have been told that they cannot withdraw their funds because there is a dearth of sales at the very prices on which those portfolios were valued only last year! ) So - despite the contractual terms under which those funds attracted new investors, a simpler rule prevails: no cash, no redemption! And that syndrome will be the order of the day. The classical "run on the bank" is simply another manifestation of the same destructive phenomenon.

Central banks persist with the monetary mythology that has been failing them for the past 8 years. All the "stimulus" in the world, if predicated on the wilful destruction of savings by suppressing interest rates, will militate against the very productive enterprise that they are trying to generate - after all, which entrepreneur is so rash as to risk investing in long-term infrastructure and construction projects without being able to factor in the cost of capital that the project will consume? Even these half-baked central bankers know that interest rates MUST rise at some point, and every business plan is therefore incomplete without knowing when that will happen. They are all up against a brick wall - their policies don't work, and they have run out of all options that their limited horizons encompass. Once you are offering savers zero, and minus, rates of interest, all deposit-banking becomes pointless and cash is being hoarded. You may have read that the fastest selling products these days are domestic safes!

[easthertsr]

Look it's quite simple the rich guys win ,surprise, surprise!!! The apple cart will not be overturned!!

[bakes8]

Thank you for the welcome. These are worthy responses, certainly thoughtful and intelligent.

A week's observation in Brexitland

Brexit has proved the catalyst for releasing forces of social discontent and disillusion, not only in Britain but, it seems, in several other countries in the EU too. In that sense, Brexit is something of a sideshow. It highlighted a huge divide between politicians as a governing class and the broad masses who no longer believe that they are being governed with their own welfare (in the true sense) in mind.

Unfortunately, while Brexit may, in that sense, have lifted the scales from our eyes, the resulting vision does not extend into the cause of the malaise whose next manifestation will be a banking inferno (commencing in Southern sovereign states) and an ensuing currency meltdown as a prelude to the demise of paper money. The banks of Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece would, but for (i) massive credit transfers from Northern states and (ii) M.Draghi's determination to flood them with the ECB's fiat euros, be hovering right now between insolvency and outright bankruptcy.

This flawed arrangement, as an economic policy designed to do "whatever it takes" to salvage the euro, is today's most blatant exercise in wishful thinking. Central Bankers everywhere (including Yellen and Carney) have succumbed to the lure of an economic salvation that is incapable of realisation. Once the governments of these failing states face the fact that they are caught in a debt trap from which there is no escape, serious civil unrest will follow in the wake of unpaid public sector wages and debt redemptions that can never be honoured. (We have already had more than a hint of this in the UK, where holders of bonds in property portfolios have been told that they cannot withdraw their funds because there is a dearth of sales at the very prices on which those portfolios were valued only last year! ) So - despite the contractual terms under which those funds attracted new investors, a simpler rule prevails: no cash, no redemption! And that syndrome will be the order of the day. The classical "run on the bank" is simply another manifestation of the same destructive phenomenon.

Central banks persist with the monetary mythology that has been failing them for the past 8 years. All the "stimulus" in the world, if predicated on the wilful destruction of savings by suppressing interest rates, will militate against the very productive enterprise that they are trying to generate - after all, which entrepreneur is so rash as to risk investing in long-term infrastructure and construction projects without being able to factor in the cost of capital that the project will consume? Even these half-baked central bankers know that interest rates MUST rise at some point, and every business plan is therefore incomplete without knowing when that will happen. They are all up against a brick wall - their policies don't work, and they have run out of all options that their limited horizons encompass. Once you are offering savers zero, and minus, rates of interest, all deposit-banking becomes pointless and cash is being hoarded. You may have read that the fastest selling products these days are domestic safes!

Wow, well said.

You can stay

[Hubble]

Thank you for the welcome. These are worthy responses, certainly thoughtful and intelligent.

A week's observation in Brexitland

Brexit has proved the catalyst for releasing forces of social discontent and disillusion, not only in Britain but, it seems, in several other countries in the EU too. In that sense, Brexit is something of a sideshow. It highlighted a huge divide between politicians as a governing class and the broad masses who no longer believe that they are being governed with their own welfare (in the true sense) in mind.

Unfortunately, while Brexit may, in that sense, have lifted the scales from our eyes, the resulting vision does not extend into the cause of the malaise whose next manifestation will be a banking inferno (commencing in Southern sovereign states) and an ensuing currency meltdown as a prelude to the demise of paper money. The banks of Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece would, but for (i) massive credit transfers from Northern states and (ii) M.Draghi's determination to flood them with the ECB's fiat euros, be hovering right now between insolvency and outright bankruptcy.

This flawed arrangement, as an economic policy designed to do "whatever it takes" to salvage the euro, is today's most blatant exercise in wishful thinking. Central Bankers everywhere (including Yellen and Carney) have succumbed to the lure of an economic salvation that is incapable of realisation. Once the governments of these failing states face the fact that they are caught in a debt trap from which there is no escape, serious civil unrest will follow in the wake of unpaid public sector wages and debt redemptions that can never be honoured. (We have already had more than a hint of this in the UK, where holders of bonds in property portfolios have been told that they cannot withdraw their funds because there is a dearth of sales at the very prices on which those portfolios were valued only last year! ) So - despite the contractual terms under which those funds attracted new investors, a simpler rule prevails: no cash, no redemption! And that syndrome will be the order of the day. The classical "run on the bank" is simply another manifestation of the same destructive phenomenon.

Central banks persist with the monetary mythology that has been failing them for the past 8 years. All the "stimulus" in the world, if predicated on the wilful destruction of savings by suppressing interest rates, will militate against the very productive enterprise that they are trying to generate - after all, which entrepreneur is so rash as to risk investing in long-term infrastructure and construction projects without being able to factor in the cost of capital that the project will consume? Even these half-baked central bankers know that interest rates MUST rise at some point, and every business plan is therefore incomplete without knowing when that will happen. They are all up against a brick wall - their policies don't work, and they have run out of all options that their limited horizons encompass. Once you are offering savers zero, and minus, rates of interest, all deposit-banking becomes pointless and cash is being hoarded. You may have read that the fastest selling products these days are domestic safes!

Excellent post. You're not wrong. I'm surprised the whole sh1t show has lasted this long. And yet still these tragic clowns keep on trying to keep the bubble from busting. This is from today's edition of City AM:

"AS UNCERTAINTY from the UK’s referendum result continues to plague the banking sector, Deutsche Bank’s chief economist is calling for a bailout of Europe’s banks.
In an interview with Welt am Sonntag, David Folkerts-Landau suggested that an injection of fresh capital was needed to help save banks, pegging the amount needed to recapitalise at €150bn (£128bn).
“Europe is seriously ill and needs to address very quickly the existing problems, or face an accident,” Folkerts-Landau told the German newspaper, and highlighted that the Italian banks were particularly problematic.
Speaking with City A.M. Raoul Ruparel, co-director of Open Europe, described the state of Europe’s banks as “a long running problem” which had been “incrementally cleaned up, but there hasn’t been a proper wholesale clean up of the system and particularly countries such as Italy have not undertaken a real clean up of their banks”.

Italy’s banks, which were already struggling with €360bn in non-performing loans between them, were recently dealt a second blow, after the UK’s vote to leave the EU sent bank share prices plummeting worldwide. Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, has previously told City A.M. that failure of the Italian banking sector could topple the banking sector across Europe. “If Italy goes under then it will take the rest of Europe with it,” Hewson said. Ruparel added: “There’s definitely a concern that it could spill over."

Matteo Renzi, the Italian PM, is already holding Merkel to ransom with the threat of 'Italeave'. In Portugal, there are posters everywhere saying 'End this Oppression!" They're talking about EU enforced austerity. The debt crisis has been continually kicked down the road by Germany, the ECB and the IMF, because instead of allowing a sovereign debt write-off - the only sane and indeed humane answer - they're trying to squeeze every last pip out of the EU citizens in the Southern states. It won't work, and as C0ck-a-Hoop rightly points out, the sh1t is about to hit the fan. We probably left the EU just in time to watch the whole thing collapse, and of course, Brexit has been a significant factor in speeding its timely demise.

It is for exactly these kind of reasons that I advocated people take a look at alternative currencies such as bitcoin. When I posted about it at the beginning of the year it was around £300 a btc - it's currently over £500. Crypto-currencies or precious metals are the best hedge, and I prefer the former. Far easier to trade, and almost certainly the future of money.

[wortonranger]

Thank you for the welcome. These are worthy responses, certainly thoughtful and intelligent.

A week's observation in Brexitland

Brexit has proved the catalyst for releasing forces of social discontent and disillusion, not only in Britain but, it seems, in several other countries in the EU too. In that sense, Brexit is something of a sideshow. It highlighted a huge divide between politicians as a governing class and the broad masses who no longer believe that they are being governed with their own welfare (in the true sense) in mind.

Unfortunately, while Brexit may, in that sense, have lifted the scales from our eyes, the resulting vision does not extend into the cause of the malaise whose next manifestation will be a banking inferno (commencing in Southern sovereign states) and an ensuing currency meltdown as a prelude to the demise of paper money. The banks of Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece would, but for (i) massive credit transfers from Northern states and (ii) M.Draghi's determination to flood them with the ECB's fiat euros, be hovering right now between insolvency and outright bankruptcy.

This flawed arrangement, as an economic policy designed to do "whatever it takes" to salvage the euro, is today's most blatant exercise in wishful thinking. Central Bankers everywhere (including Yellen and Carney) have succumbed to the lure of an economic salvation that is incapable of realisation. Once the governments of these failing states face the fact that they are caught in a debt trap from which there is no escape, serious civil unrest will follow in the wake of unpaid public sector wages and debt redemptions that can never be honoured. (We have already had more than a hint of this in the UK, where holders of bonds in property portfolios have been told that they cannot withdraw their funds because there is a dearth of sales at the very prices on which those portfolios were valued only last year! ) So - despite the contractual terms under which those funds attracted new investors, a simpler rule prevails: no cash, no redemption! And that syndrome will be the order of the day. The classical "run on the bank" is simply another manifestation of the same destructive phenomenon.

Central banks persist with the monetary mythology that has been failing them for the past 8 years. All the "stimulus" in the world, if predicated on the wilful destruction of savings by suppressing interest rates, will militate against the very productive enterprise that they are trying to generate - after all, which entrepreneur is so rash as to risk investing in long-term infrastructure and construction projects without being able to factor in the cost of capital that the project will consume? Even these half-baked central bankers know that interest rates MUST rise at some point, and every business plan is therefore incomplete without knowing when that will happen. They are all up against a brick wall - their policies don't work, and they have run out of all options that their limited horizons encompass. Once you are offering savers zero, and minus, rates of interest, all deposit-banking becomes pointless and cash is being hoarded. You may have read that the fastest selling products these days are domestic safes!

Without being too big headed, I have a Masters Degree from Oxford University and I can't make head or tail of this. What really matters is will Conor Washington ever score for us.

[Olly]

In simple terms, there's a political revolution coming, disconnected people all over the world have had enough of austerity, big brother, wars etc.

People like Corbyn can win power because they're connected to the people, That's why 000's of people are signing up to Labour. This new century could be the time of shocks. Time for a new world order, and not the American hawk one they were hoping for.

[Hubble]

In simple terms, there's a political revolution coming, disconnected people all over the world have had enough of austerity, big brother, wars etc.

People like Corbyn can win power because they're connected to the people, That's why 000's of people are signing up to Labour. This new century could be the time of shocks. Time for a new world order, and not the American hawk one they were hoping for.

Agreed.