A draw is all we need, Not good for Lids but who cares
Unconfigured Ad Widget
Collapse
Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
Leeds Match Thread
Collapse
X
-
Originally posted by LoftusRoadLad View PostA draw is all we need, Not good for Lids but who cares
-
The four teams that can overtake us (I disregard Huddersfield because of the goal difference) are respectively 1, 2, 3 and 4 points behind us. In theory, with two games left, all four can overtake us. B'ham needs 4 points, Sheff W also four points because of the goal difference, and Plymouth and B'burn just 2 and 1 as they can overtake us on goal difference if they take points and we lose two matches.
If we get a draw against Leeds, it won't make us safe, but it is still of great help. B'ham will then need two wins rather than one win and a draw. Sheff W will needs two wins rather than one win and a draw. Plymouth needs 3 points, not 2. Blackburn needs 2 draw not one draw (alternative a win and a draw). B'burn plays away to Leicester on the last day and it is not very likely they get a draw even if they get a draw on Saturday.
So even though a draw does not make us mathematically safe, it will make it much less likely all four teams can overtake us at the same time. I think, if we get a draw, the chance we will be relegated if we lose to Coventry is 5% or less.
I don't like to park the bus, but we did it against Leicester and it worked out. I would do the same against Leeds, knowing this will likely increase the chance of getting at least a draw, and possibly also bring us a much desired win.
By the way, if Coventry loses tonight (they are trailing 1-2 at time of writing), their promotion hopes are purely academical, and will likely be gone before the final match, which makes a draw against Leeds even more attractive.
- Likes 1
Comment
-
Originally posted by QPROslo View PostThe four teams that can overtake us (I disregard Huddersfield because of the goal difference) are respectively 1, 2, 3 and 4 points behind us. In theory, with two games left, all four can overtake us. B'ham needs 4 points, Sheff W also four points because of the goal difference, and Plymouth and B'burn just 2 and 1 as they can overtake us on goal difference if they take points and we lose two matches.
If we get a draw against Leeds, it won't make us safe, but it is still of great help. B'ham will then need two wins rather than one win and a draw. Sheff W will needs two wins rather than one win and a draw. Plymouth needs 3 points, not 2. Blackburn needs 2 draw not one draw (alternative a win and a draw). B'burn plays away to Leicester on the last day and it is not very likely they get a draw even if they get a draw on Saturday.
So even though a draw does not make us mathematically safe, it will make it much less likely all four teams can overtake us at the same time. I think, if we get a draw, the chance we will be relegated if we lose to Coventry is 5% or less.
I don't like to park the bus, but we did it against Leicester and it worked out. I would do the same against Leeds, knowing this will likely increase the chance of getting at least a draw, and possibly also bring us a much desired win.
By the way, if Coventry loses tonight (they are trailing 1-2 at time of writing), their promotion hopes are purely academical, and will likely be gone before the final match, which makes a draw against Leeds even more attractive.
- Likes 1
Comment
-
Originally posted by QPROslo View PostThe four teams that can overtake us (I disregard Huddersfield because of the goal difference) are respectively 1, 2, 3 and 4 points behind us. In theory, with two games left, all four can overtake us. B'ham needs 4 points, Sheff W also four points because of the goal difference, and Plymouth and B'burn just 2 and 1 as they can overtake us on goal difference if they take points and we lose two matches.
If we get a draw against Leeds, it won't make us safe, but it is still of great help. B'ham will then need two wins rather than one win and a draw. Sheff W will needs two wins rather than one win and a draw. Plymouth needs 3 points, not 2. Blackburn needs 2 draw not one draw (alternative a win and a draw). B'burn plays away to Leicester on the last day and it is not very likely they get a draw even if they get a draw on Saturday.
So even though a draw does not make us mathematically safe, it will make it much less likely all four teams can overtake us at the same time. I think, if we get a draw, the chance we will be relegated if we lose to Coventry is 5% or less.
I don't like to park the bus, but we did it against Leicester and it worked out. I would do the same against Leeds, knowing this will likely increase the chance of getting at least a draw, and possibly also bring us a much desired win.
By the way, if Coventry loses tonight (they are trailing 1-2 at time of writing), their promotion hopes are purely academical, and will likely be gone before the final match, which makes a draw against Leeds even more attractive.
I reckon there is one more very outside factor that could remotely affect things. What if Huddersfield were to beat Birmingham, unlikely, I know. In that scenario Birmingham couldn't catch us, and Huddersfield could only tie, but have that poor goal difference?
Comment
-
Hull beating Cov was fantastic. It puts WBA's spot in play-offs under threat and means Baggies have to really go for it against Wednesday this weekend. If Owls lose, we are safe barring a massive and hugely improbable swing in goal difference.
- Likes 1
Comment
-
Originally posted by Abseits View PostHull beating Cov was fantastic. It puts WBA's spot in play-offs under threat and means Baggies have to really go for it against Wednesday this weekend. If Owls lose, we are safe barring a massive and hugely improbable swing in goal difference.
Comment
Comment