A draw is all we need, Not good for Lids but who cares
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Not wishing to disagree but a draw doesn't improve our current state of play much at all. We need 3 points from one of the last 2 games or other results going our way. I think other results is very likely and hopefully will be.Originally posted by LoftusRoadLad View PostA draw is all we need, Not good for Lids but who cares
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The four teams that can overtake us (I disregard Huddersfield because of the goal difference) are respectively 1, 2, 3 and 4 points behind us. In theory, with two games left, all four can overtake us. B'ham needs 4 points, Sheff W also four points because of the goal difference, and Plymouth and B'burn just 2 and 1 as they can overtake us on goal difference if they take points and we lose two matches.
If we get a draw against Leeds, it won't make us safe, but it is still of great help. B'ham will then need two wins rather than one win and a draw. Sheff W will needs two wins rather than one win and a draw. Plymouth needs 3 points, not 2. Blackburn needs 2 draw not one draw (alternative a win and a draw). B'burn plays away to Leicester on the last day and it is not very likely they get a draw even if they get a draw on Saturday.
So even though a draw does not make us mathematically safe, it will make it much less likely all four teams can overtake us at the same time. I think, if we get a draw, the chance we will be relegated if we lose to Coventry is 5% or less.
I don't like to park the bus, but we did it against Leicester and it worked out. I would do the same against Leeds, knowing this will likely increase the chance of getting at least a draw, and possibly also bring us a much desired win.
By the way, if Coventry loses tonight (they are trailing 1-2 at time of writing), their promotion hopes are purely academical, and will likely be gone before the final match, which makes a draw against Leeds even more attractive.
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I stand corrected, a draw on Friday night may well be a good result given your points. Cheers.Originally posted by QPROslo View PostThe four teams that can overtake us (I disregard Huddersfield because of the goal difference) are respectively 1, 2, 3 and 4 points behind us. In theory, with two games left, all four can overtake us. B'ham needs 4 points, Sheff W also four points because of the goal difference, and Plymouth and B'burn just 2 and 1 as they can overtake us on goal difference if they take points and we lose two matches.
If we get a draw against Leeds, it won't make us safe, but it is still of great help. B'ham will then need two wins rather than one win and a draw. Sheff W will needs two wins rather than one win and a draw. Plymouth needs 3 points, not 2. Blackburn needs 2 draw not one draw (alternative a win and a draw). B'burn plays away to Leicester on the last day and it is not very likely they get a draw even if they get a draw on Saturday.
So even though a draw does not make us mathematically safe, it will make it much less likely all four teams can overtake us at the same time. I think, if we get a draw, the chance we will be relegated if we lose to Coventry is 5% or less.
I don't like to park the bus, but we did it against Leicester and it worked out. I would do the same against Leeds, knowing this will likely increase the chance of getting at least a draw, and possibly also bring us a much desired win.
By the way, if Coventry loses tonight (they are trailing 1-2 at time of writing), their promotion hopes are purely academical, and will likely be gone before the final match, which makes a draw against Leeds even more attractive.
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Admirably put as usual - I've been struggling with it for days.Originally posted by QPROslo View PostThe four teams that can overtake us (I disregard Huddersfield because of the goal difference) are respectively 1, 2, 3 and 4 points behind us. In theory, with two games left, all four can overtake us. B'ham needs 4 points, Sheff W also four points because of the goal difference, and Plymouth and B'burn just 2 and 1 as they can overtake us on goal difference if they take points and we lose two matches.
If we get a draw against Leeds, it won't make us safe, but it is still of great help. B'ham will then need two wins rather than one win and a draw. Sheff W will needs two wins rather than one win and a draw. Plymouth needs 3 points, not 2. Blackburn needs 2 draw not one draw (alternative a win and a draw). B'burn plays away to Leicester on the last day and it is not very likely they get a draw even if they get a draw on Saturday.
So even though a draw does not make us mathematically safe, it will make it much less likely all four teams can overtake us at the same time. I think, if we get a draw, the chance we will be relegated if we lose to Coventry is 5% or less.
I don't like to park the bus, but we did it against Leicester and it worked out. I would do the same against Leeds, knowing this will likely increase the chance of getting at least a draw, and possibly also bring us a much desired win.
By the way, if Coventry loses tonight (they are trailing 1-2 at time of writing), their promotion hopes are purely academical, and will likely be gone before the final match, which makes a draw against Leeds even more attractive.
I reckon there is one more very outside factor that could remotely affect things. What if Huddersfield were to beat Birmingham, unlikely, I know. In that scenario Birmingham couldn't catch us, and Huddersfield could only tie, but have that poor goal difference?
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Hull beating Cov was fantastic. It puts WBA's spot in play-offs under threat and means Baggies have to really go for it against Wednesday this weekend. If Owls lose, we are safe barring a massive and hugely improbable swing in goal difference.
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And this result means Coventry's play off hopes are nearly mathematically impossible. If they drop points away to Blackburn on Sat that will be it and hopefully an easier game for us if we still need points.Originally posted by Abseits View PostHull beating Cov was fantastic. It puts WBA's spot in play-offs under threat and means Baggies have to really go for it against Wednesday this weekend. If Owls lose, we are safe barring a massive and hugely improbable swing in goal difference.
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