How realistic are our chances of staying up?

[Smaug]

I think we will stay up as long as we keep close to the other teams by Jan, and then add another cb/striker.

[hh9]

I believe if we can close the gap to 1 or 2 point for the 17th spot in the next 3 games, we are save.
That would mean 6-7 points from these games and it can be done
Rodney said on QPR podcast the key is to win 3 in a row - so true

[zeberdee]

Need to win 10 games to stay up - won 1 from 17 so still need 9 wins from 21 games remaining to survive.

If Harry is backed to get some of his targets in January to try to plug some of the holes that Hughes left then it is possible to stay up.

Providing everyone keeps their feet on the ground too.

[Rebel R's]

Cases are slim but we have a chance,maybe 20% chance of staying up

[MattyRangers]

Cases are slim but we have a chance, maybe 20% chance of staying up

And how have you arrived at that percentage? We're only 5 pts off safety with 63 pts still to play for

[dsqpr]

And how have you arrived at that percentage? We're only 5 pts off safety with 63 pts still to play for

See http://www.wearetherangersboys.com/f...&postid=986305

That site simulates the season x times (I'm not sure what "x" is) and uses that to calculate the probabilities for each team. They currently give us a 15.9% chance of survival.

[MattyRangers]

See http://www.wearetherangersboys.com/f...&postid=986305

That site simulates the season x times (I'm not sure what "x" is) and uses that to calculate the probabilities for each team. They currently give us a 15.9% chance of survival.

Thats all well and good (and Im not knocking you for posting that btw) - but thats just some bod number crunching at a desk, no reflection at all on football. You cant put a percentage on something like that.

[dsqpr]

No problem Matty! I will just say that bods crunching numbers did put man on the moon so there is some validity to number crunching!

Of course it can't factor in something like a team that has improved under a new manager so it does have limitations. But by the same token, our guesses have significant limitations too!

[Felt]

I hate seeing this rubbish "oh we need to win blah blah number of games" or "finish with x number of points". All we need to do is get more points than whoever lands in 18th. As someone said earlier in the thread, at the moment we've got five to make up in 21 games remaining. I'd hardly describe it as mission impossible. If had to put it a figure on it I'd say it's 50/50 at this point. We're in a tough spot but we've got a manager who finished fourth in the league last season and since he came in we're unbeaten.

[Shrine]

difference in all of those examples are teams that have won games and can go on a run

we've just one our first game and haveno evidence of being able to make a run...

[dsqpr]

I hate seeing this rubbish "oh we need to win blah blah number of games" or "finish with x number of points". All we need to do is get more points than whoever lands in 18th. As someone said earlier in the thread, at the moment we've got five to make up in 21 games remaining. I'd hardly describe it as mission impossible. If had to put it a figure on it I'd say it's 50/50 at this point. We're in a tough spot but we've got a manager who finished fourth in the league last season and since he came in we're unbeaten.

What odds do you give the other relegation candidates then?
- Reading (who have only one point less than us)? Are they 50/50 too?
- Wigan?
- Southampton?
- Villa?
- Sunderland?
- Newcastle?
- Fulham?
- Liverpool?
- West Ham?
- Swansea?

If you know anything about probability analysis then you will know that the probabilities of relegation for all teams in the PREM need to add up to 3 (for 3 relegated teams). If we are 50/50 (or 0.5 in probabilistic terms) then it seems to me you would need to give somebody else an unrealistically high probability of relegation to balance our unrealistically low 0.5.

Rather amusing that you dismiss others' arm waving and replace it with some arm waving of your own!

[Shania]

Very realistic IMO. All of a sudden things are looking alot better - under Hughes we hadn't won a game, it was hard to see where a win was coming from & we had failed to beat many poor sides (Reading, Villa, Soton etc) and so many of us (me included) seemed resigned to thinking we had little hope of climbing out of the mess we were in. However, now we have Arry and a seeming "second wind", we are unbeaten in 4, have finally won a game and we're off the bottom - only 5 pts off safety. The performances are alot better with team spirit evident (something that was clearly lacking under Hughes) and everybody fighting for the cause - even bl00dy Cisse put a shift in vs Foolham and I never thought I'd see that!

Whats 5 pts with 21 games to go? Absolutley nothing really considering we still have to play everybody again at least once. I think we will survive, I really do - I'll even stick my neck out and say we will be safe with a couple of games to go.

PS: That aint a half bad rack at all is it.

Excellent!! I hope you are right It´s also important that we dont panic if we fail to win(cough,cough) against Newcastle.

[Gtleighsr3]

i know its very early to judge but i do feel we have turned the corner.\true geordies could smash us and be back to square one but cant see it.\we are now harder to beat,scoring and have won.Touching distance to 17th place,window upon us and all the soton Reading fans who had wrote us off had better watch out.I personally think with a decent wheeler dealer window we will end up about 14/15th.Reading Soton and Wigan finally to go down.

[midland R]

where there is a will, there's normally relatives.hat,coat,banging of door.

[acricketer]

i know its very early to judge but i do feel we have turned the corner.\true geordies could smash us and be back to square one but cant see it.\we are now harder to beat,scoring and have won.Touching distance to 17th place,window upon us and all the soton Reading fans who had wrote us off had better watch out.I personally think with a decent wheeler dealer window we will end up about 14/15th.Reading Soton and Wigan finally to go down.

Let's hope so.