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SportsClubStats - 8.7% Chance of survival

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  • #1

    SportsClubStats - 8.7% Chance of survival

    91.3% chance of going down. Seems about right to me. Long shot to stay up now, but not impossible.

    This is with the weighted method (we are poor!).
    With the 50/50 method (assumes all teams are equal) our chances of survival improve to 25.2% (74.8% chance of being relegated).

    They simulate the season a number of times and sum up the results. In this case it looks as though they have simulated it 100 times, which isn't very many really. I think they do this daily so a new simulation may have been done by the time you read this (with different, but probably similar, results).

    Sportsclubstats.com
    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html
    Last edited by dsqpr; 19-12-2012, 04:39 PM.
    'Only a Ranger!' cried Gandalf. 'My dear Frodo, that is just what the Rangers are: the last remnant in the South of the great people, the Men of West London.' - Lord of the Rings, Book II, Chapter I - Many Meetings.
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  • #2
    Our chances of survival have apparently improved from 8.7% to 15.9% based on our win over Fulham.
    'Only a Ranger!' cried Gandalf. 'My dear Frodo, that is just what the Rangers are: the last remnant in the South of the great people, the Men of West London.' - Lord of the Rings, Book II, Chapter I - Many Meetings.

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    • #3
      Yet they give Reading only a 72.4% chance of being relegated? What a load of rubbish.

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      • #4
        It is the result of a simulation. We can never know the real probabilities. Any guess is as good as any other. And the results of a simulation are normally better than most.
        'Only a Ranger!' cried Gandalf. 'My dear Frodo, that is just what the Rangers are: the last remnant in the South of the great people, the Men of West London.' - Lord of the Rings, Book II, Chapter I - Many Meetings.

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        • #5
          I think there is certainly hope, think back to the 1990/91 season, Sheffield United finished 13th after being rock bottom of the league on the 22nd December with 4 points from 16 games. If we can emulate that we've got a fighting chance.

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          • #6
            to quote indiana jones
            NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS!

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            • #7
              Originally posted by dsqpr View Post
              It is the result of a simulation. We can never know the real probabilities. Any guess is as good as any other. And the results of a simulation are normally better than most.
              A completely useless simulation.

              If they changed the model to include far more data than just form, e.g.

              - Probability of a club making a managerial change (and the impact of that in terms of points)
              - Probability of injuries (you could potentially look at the injury records of each player, then try and factor in the impact of each player on points tally)
              - Probability of transfers

              Then it might be slightly less useless, but only very, very slightly.

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              • #8
                what a load of tosh.

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