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All this confidence about how well we will do...

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  • All this confidence about how well we will do...

    What is it based on? Of course the new season is before us and if you cannot look ahead with optimism no one would be a football fan. I also agree the club is in the best hands (owners, manager, off field staff) with the best players it has had for years. I'm loving it.

    BUT I keep reading on here that we are going to be a mid-table team this season. The general assumption seems to be that within a few years we might even be competing for a place in Europe.

    Yet I think it is worth countering that with a few points of realism. We avoided relegation by the skin of our teeth last season. SO FAR in the transfer window we have objectively improved in the goal-keeping department significantly with the arrival of Green, who most would agree is better than Kenny. There are certainly other very useful arrivals. Nelson is a good experienced pro, but assuming he replaces Clint Hill is that a game-changing improvement? If Fabio replaces Taiwo, is he a massive step up? Is Andy Johnston coming off the bench going to get us the goals that Helguson or DJ couldnt? Yes we have signed Diakite on a permanent move, but he was with us for a significant number of games in the second half of the season anyway. And to counter that good news we have lost Barton for the first three months already.

    My view is these could all look like very solid squad additions if a couple of really good players now come in (priority a top centre half, and ideally another midfield player). Then I fully accept we will have stepped up a significant level. But did you notice how Fernandez described Diakite's arrival as a seminal moment? That suggests to me that he might be our biggest signing this summer. The fan assumption is the board have got the bread and butter players in but will now splash some serious cash, yet in truth no one knows. Its possible that the board think they have already spent significant funds in the last two transfer windows and now it is down to Hughes to do something with what he has got. I couldnt really blame them because football is a bottomless pit. Maybe Fernandes isnt the head of a Malaysian consortiumbut instead a very charismatic guy with £300m who has already shot his bolt? Im not saying he is BTW, just saying it is possible.

    If we are to be guaranteed survival - let alone make mid-table - my personal opinion is that we still need significant improvement. Southampton and West Ham will spend. Reading and Norwich may struggle but I don't see any really obvious whipping boys, and certainly not ten odd teams that we are significantly better than.

    I say all this not to be negative and my optimism index would shoot up with two more really good signings. But I just think until then we should keep our feet on the ground because otherwise it is just building up false expectation which is going to lead to a lot of posters throwing their toys out of the pram when we lose a few games and we are reminded that this Premier League lark is far from easy...

  • #2
    very good and level headed post.

    I agree that some people do seem to be getting a bit carried away and getting ideas above our stations. I think we do underestimate some sides, just going by names on paper and writing them off as worse than us when, in reality, the PL experience some sides have is worth a few points.

    I agree we have the potential in the next few years to push on up the league, but we are still finding our feet in this league and, personally, will be happy with simply surviving again this season, although have to admit Id really like it to be confirmed with a few games to go as my ticker might not be able to handle another finish like this years!!

    The highest I think we will finish this year is 14th which, personally, Id be over the moon with.
    You should never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by MattyRangers View Post
      very good and level headed post.

      I agree that some people do seem to be getting a bit carried away and getting ideas above our stations. I think we do underestimate some sides, just going by names on paper and writing them off as worse than us when, in reality, the PL experience some sides have is worth a few points.

      I agree we have the potential in the next few years to push on up the league, but we are still finding our feet in this league and, personally, will be happy with simply surviving again this season, although have to admit Id really like it to be confirmed with a few games to go as my ticker might not be able to handle another finish like this years!!

      The highest I think we will finish this year is 14th which, personally, Id be over the moon with.
      Would love a 14th place finish and a decent cup run

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      • #4
        we have another "new" player coming back in Faurlin and sick note Dyer plus a full preseason training so looking a very good improvement on last season.

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        • #5
          Whilst I understand the sentiments of your post and the majority of what you have written is hard to disagree with, I think you have significantly underplayed the importance of having a settled squad and a proper pre-season under a genuine Premiership manager. Last season started badly with Flabio and his cronies in situe until 10 days before the season started and as a result we were playing catch up all season. Personally I think our squad in May was vastly superior to our league position and we showed that by giving Man City 2 of the toughest games they had all season.

          I think also we paid for indiscipline last season, was it 9 reds in the end? Many of those turned games we could have gone on to win into losses and that is before we consider the impact of the suspensions.

          For me, with a couple more additions we have a genuine Premiership side with enough quality to trouble anyone on our day and it is not unrealistic to hope of a mid table finish, in fact I think that is exactly what we will get!

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          • #6
            We need to walk before we can run. We're certainly headed in the right direction.
            You should never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.

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            • #7
              I have a sneaky feeling we will be in the top ten for the majority of the season.

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              • #8
                I think a lot of the optimism this season is based on on our new sense of stability....last season we got people in like lunatics in the final hours of the transfer window...it felt like we were just getting bodies in regardless of what they would 'add' to our team. It was a similar story in January with the changeover in managers (although the January additions were slightly more measured)

                This season MH is making calculated, quality signings that WILL enhance our squad and subsequently I believe we will improve our league position.

                Finally....every fan of every team in the world starts a new season full to the brim with confidence!

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                • #9
                  one thing your forgetting is last season we were new to the prem and stuggled for the first dozen games with the pace and know how.As the season went on we learnt how to adapt and fortunately performed like a prem team in the last 10 games otherwise it would of been relegation. This campaign should start much better and with the experience from last season plus the additions to the squad who have played in the league before we should gain at least 12 points more than last which would make us a comfortable mid table side so i dont think being optimistic about a good season is unreasonable.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Tarbie View Post
                    Whilst I understand the sentiments of your post and the majority of what you have written is hard to disagree with, I think you have significantly underplayed the importance of having a settled squad and a proper pre-season under a genuine Premiership manager. Last season started badly with Flabio and his cronies in situe until 10 days before the season started and as a result we were playing catch up all season. Personally I think our squad in May was vastly superior to our league position and we showed that by giving Man City 2 of the toughest games they had all season.

                    I think also we paid for indiscipline last season, was it 9 reds in the end? Many of those turned games we could have gone on to win into losses and that is before we consider the impact of the suspensions.

                    For me, with a couple more additions we have a genuine Premiership side with enough quality to trouble anyone on our day and it is not unrealistic to hope of a mid table finish, in fact I think that is exactly what we will get!
                    Agree about the ill-discipline which hopefully Hughes will stamp out. And also agree with the other poster about Hughes and the value of a settled squad. BUT just to continue playing devils advocate for a moment: we actually started the season really well and were mid-table the first couple of months so not sure it can all be blamed on pre-season. Even with all the new additions we were still being thrashed 6-1 by Chelsea etc fairly late on in the campaign and were not just in the relegation zone but in relegation form. It was only in the final few weeks we turned it round, and right to the end of the season we were being turned over in virtually every away game. Another poster also mentioned Faurlin who I cant wait to see back but Pete is among those saying he wont figure until Nov. Without him and Barton, AS THINGS STAND I guess our best centre midfield for the first third of the season will be Diakite with Derry. Nothing disastrous but a mid-table finish realistically means doing better than teams like Sunderland, Stoke, Villa, Fulham and starting to close the gap on clubs like Newcastle and Everton. Far from impossible, just not as easy as some assume (imho of course).

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                    • #11
                      Green alone means 5-6 points more. Settled Diakite and Cisse from the start another. Think we'll get 10 points more and we'll finish 10-14.

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                      • #12
                        i've got a good feeling about next year. 12 months ago and i felt we'd struggle, and probably end up going down. i wasn't surprised about how well norwich or swansea did.

                        what's different now?

                        although i liked nw, he wasn't really a premiership-level manager, with him we won games through heart and passion, but we lost a lot through using very basic tactics and players who didn't always seem too fit. hughes and co really come across as professional and meticulous, tactically they've been (on the whole sound). they can see where we need to improve and i do trust them to achieve that improvement.

                        squadwise, tango and cash left us high and dry. we spent big at the end of each transfer window and the team took time to settle (especially wth some of the bigger personalities involved). this year, we seem to be getting people early - it's got to be a good thing.

                        sure, there's gripes - a lot of the new signings are relatively old, not sure how demanding some of the pre-season matchs will turn out to be, but this time around i do think that there are at least 5 or 6 worse teams in a worse position than us (i really think we'll benefit from the managerial merry-go-round at norwich, west brom, swansea etc).

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by paulmason View Post
                          I have a sneaky feeling we will be in the top ten for the majority of the season.
                          looking at the fixtures, august, november, december, february, march and april are our best months for taking points.

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                          • #14
                            anything better than 17th is good enough for me and Mid Table would be a great season if it happened.

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                            • #15
                              My optimism is bulit on the fact we are now organised.We also have a manager who knows his onions at this level. Last season proved its sometimes not the players you have but what you do with them (Norwich,Swansea). Last season was a car crash from start to finish for us.
                              This season we are getting our business done early,theres no takeover hanging over the club,no uncertainty over the manager. Stability is key.

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