bottom 3 by new years day

[PedalR]

Some facts...

I've looked at everyone's next 4 fixtures and if we were to lose the lot and there was a ridiculosuly freak set of results in all the other games (ie Wigan beating the current top 3 and similar such freak results) we could be bottom and adrift by 2 points after 4 games.

However, assuming we take 2 points from next 12pts and other results go to form and factoring in facts like Bolton and Blackburn can't both get 3pts from their game against each other the table will probably look like this....

10th Norwich 22pts
11th Villa 19pts
12th Wolves 19pts
13th Fulham 18pts
14th Swansea 18pts
15th QPR 18pts
16th WBA 17pts
17th S'land 16pts
18th Blackburn 14pts
19th Wigan 12pts
20th Bolton 11pts

So even with a measley 2 pts from our next 4 games we'd go into the game against Norwich sat comfortably in the middle of our "mini-league".... obviouslt getting a win in there somewhere9Especially against Swans or Cats would make potential position better all round.

So, all those "in bottom 3 in January" are wildly pessimistic and would require a concerted set of freak results and transformations in form that are incredibly unlikely to happen.

Basically, all teams have a testing set of fixtures coming up... Villa and Wigan must be really bricking it!

[stainrodisalegend]

Some facts...

I've looked at everyone's next 4 fixtures and if we were to lose the lot and there was a ridiculosuly freak set of results in all the other games (ie Wigan beating the current top 3 and similar such freak results) we could be bottom and adrift by 2 points after 4 games.

However, assuming we take 2 points from next 12pts and other results go to form and factoring in facts like Bolton and Blackburn can't both get 3pts from their game against each other the table will probably look like this....

10th Norwich 22pts
11th Villa 19pts
12th Wolves 19pts
13th Fulham 18pts
14th Swansea 18pts
15th QPR 18pts
16th WBA 17pts
17th S'land 16pts
18th Blackburn 14pts
19th Wigan 12pts
20th Bolton 11pts

So even with a measley 2 pts from our next 4 games we'd go into the game against Norwich sat comfortably in the middle of our "mini-league".... obviouslt getting a win in there somewhere9Especially against Swans or Cats would make potential position better all round.

So, all those "in bottom 3 in January" are wildly pessimistic and would require a concerted set of freak results and transformations in form that are incredibly unlikely to happen.

Basically, all teams have a testing set of fixtures coming up... Villa and Wigan must be really bricking it!

Good, level headed post

[MYU]

Very good post however the team with most injuries will go down, let's hope our players stay fit and the additions we bring in are better than what we already have.

[stansleftfoot]

Over the last 5 years the club bottom after fifteen games stayed bottom and were relegated. So it’s likely there’s only two places yet in the dustbin of life, one having gone to the mighty Bolton, my guess must be Blackburn the second candidate. There's hardly any room in the relegation spots for many more sides, there's normally a side whose form collapses. That side is unlikely to be QPR IMO
The 18th slot averaged 35.4 points (lowest 30, highest 39). We have 23 games left and have 16 points, a tad over 1 point per game. Improve that to 1.10 point per game and we net a reasonable 25.3 points, So final Points are 41 points. Hooray….How!
We are a mid-table side defensively about 15th and the worst side offensively 20th. A small improvement is all it takes,
Of the remaining 23 games, 14 games are against sides below 7th place currently, the nominal second division of the Premiership and 9 against the Elite.
So win 5 against our peers, draw 6, and draw 5 against the big boys and its safety by some margin.
It maybe that an improvement by the current players would be enough, bought about by being able to pick the 1st Eleven. Not sure there's a lot out there in the Window, maybe Defoe for 6 weeks, Bassong is no better than we have, Onouha is an improvement but can't see MC letting him go. I think we're playing Bothroyd in the Taarabt role or trying to? My prediction is that we stay up and don't go into the relegation spots ever this season.

[QPRDave]

Really good read PedalR and some one who has put a bit of thought into it too

[stainrodisalegend]

Over the last 5 years the club bottom after fifteen games stayed bottom and were relegated. So it’s likely there’s only two places yet in the dustbin of life, one having gone to the mighty Bolton, my guess must be Blackburn the second candidate. There's hardly any room in the relegation spots for many more sides, there's normally a side whose form collapses. That side is unlikely to be QPR IMO
The 18th slot averaged 35.4 points (lowest 30, highest 39). We have 23 games left and have 16 points, a tad over 1 point per game. Improve that to 1.10 point per game and we net a reasonable 25.3 points, So final Points are 41 points. Hooray….How!
We are a mid-table side defensively about 15th and the worst side offensively 20th. A small improvement is all it takes,
Of the remaining 23 games, 14 games are against sides below 7th place currently, the nominal second division of the Premiership and 9 against the Elite.
So win 5 against our peers, draw 6, and draw 5 against the big boys and its safety by some margin.
It maybe that an improvement by the current players would be enough, bought about by being able to pick the 1st Eleven. Not sure there's a lot out there in the Window, maybe Defoe for 6 weeks, Bassong is no better than we have, Onouha is an improvement but can't see MC letting him go. I think we're playing Bothroyd in the Taarabt role or trying to? My prediction is that we stay up and don't go into the relegation spots ever this season.

Another intelligent, well researched post. Be careful, it might catch on...

[qprbrisbanedivision]

Over the last 5 years the club bottom after fifteen games stayed bottom and were relegated. So it’s likely there’s only two places yet in the dustbin of life, one having gone to the mighty Bolton, my guess must be Blackburn the second candidate. There's hardly any room in the relegation spots for many more sides, there's normally a side whose form collapses. That side is unlikely to be QPR IMO
The 18th slot averaged 35.4 points (lowest 30, highest 39). We have 23 games left and have 16 points, a tad over 1 point per game. Improve that to 1.10 point per game and we net a reasonable 25.3 points, So final Points are 41 points. Hooray….How!
We are a mid-table side defensively about 15th and the worst side offensively 20th. A small improvement is all it takes,
Of the remaining 23 games, 14 games are against sides below 7th place currently, the nominal second division of the Premiership and 9 against the Elite.
So win 5 against our peers, draw 6, and draw 5 against the big boys and its safety by some margin.
It maybe that an improvement by the current players would be enough, bought about by being able to pick the 1st Eleven. Not sure there's a lot out there in the Window, maybe Defoe for 6 weeks, Bassong is no better than we have, Onouha is an improvement but can't see MC letting him go. I think we're playing Bothroyd in the Taarabt role or trying to? My prediction is that we stay up and don't go into the relegation spots ever this season.

sderiously, you and pedlr need to get out a bit more...not together though....but that aside...both great posts!!...(nerds) ...lol