Survival target

[PedalR]

I've had a look at last 10 years of the prem to see how the 17th placed team did....... it averages out at:

Total points: 38
Goal Diff': -22
How many pts above 18th placed team: 2.4

Selected points of interest

Highs:
Wolves ended on 40pts in 2011 to finish 1pt clear of drop
Bolton ended on 44pts in 2003 to finish 2pts clear of drop

Lows:
WBA ended on 34pts in 2005 to finish 1pt clear of drop
W.Ham ended on 35pts in 2010 to finish 5 (yes 5!) pts clear of drop
Hull ended on 35pts in 2009 to finish 1pt clear of drop

Goal Difference:
Fulham 36pts (2008) and Wigan 38pts (2007) both survived by dint of goal difference of -22

Random Fact:
48pts resulted in a 9th placed finish last season

Given concensus that league is relatively poor this year it would seem 40pts would almost certainly guarantee survival but 37pts would probably sneak it.

[stainrodisalegend]

Interesting stats Pedal, thanks.

It wd be interesting to know how teams that finished 17 were placed at the number of games we have played so far - were they generally better off or worse?

When you say the division is "worse" this year I'm not so sure. In previous years there have often been teams that looked nailed on to go down (eg Derby, even Blackpool last season despite their great start) whereas this year (at this stage at least) you would have to say that each individual team has a fair chance of staying up while 8-10 cd be dragged into the dog-fight. In other words I'd be surprised if many teams fail to make about 30 points, cd be a lot hovering in the thirties.

[superhoop67]

whatever happens ,lets hope we don't rely on GD to stay up

[QPR_NW10]

whatever happens ,lets hope we don't rely on GD to stay up

too right - we've got to play foolham again!

[Rich]

If you consider we are only just below half way and have lost 5, won 3 and drawn 3 you would expect us to be lower. It's the gulf between the bottom and top 5/6 which is widening so yes I reckon 40 will keep us up for sure, possibly as low as 35 even, but let's not go there!

[PedalR]

If you consider we are only just below half way and have lost 5, won 3 and drawn 3 you would expect us to be lower. It's the gulf between the bottom and top 5/6 which is widening so yes I reckon 40 will keep us up for sure, possibly as low as 35 even, but let's not go there!

Yeah - there's already a bit of gap opening above Villa. The top 7ish are probably already in place and will just pull away now. We're in a mini-league of about a dozen and I suspect all of that dozen will be in the mix to at least Easter. It'd be good if we'd adopt a relegation scrap mentality now and fight for every point/goal - particularly against likes of Stoke....a stoic rearguard and a point would be much better than a flamboyant 4-3 defeat in such games.

[paulmason]

Imo, it will be the lowest points ever this season for survival, as the PL is so poor (or some will say strong). Likewise apart from Man City, it will be the lowest points ever for the team that finishes 2nd.

[QPRDave]

Prem table after 11 games last yearcompared to this year

Found this on Swansea not 606 site,thought might be interest

http://www.wearepremierleague.com/

[dave58]

Has to be 40 + points anything less is dodgy so reckon we need 20+ by turn of year as our final run in is daunting play M.U -M.C.-Che####- Arsenal -Spurs- Liverpool in the last 9 games!

[qprbrisbanedivision]

So...where are we gonna get the goals from then guys.....?

Defoe would get us 10..ish.....still a few short as i dont see the rest of the team scoring to many in the last half of the season....

Ideas...?

[MattyRangers]

So...where are we gonna get the goals from then guys.....?

Defoe would get us 10..ish.....still a few short as i dont see the rest of the team scoring to many in the last half of the season....

Ideas...?

Bothroyd will get 10 by the end of the season.
DJ 5
Barton 5
Faurlin 4
SWP 4
Defenders and others will chip in with another 10.

Just my opinion/guess.

[Yousef]

Considering our bad GD, the target should be 40 points.

[paulmason]

Considering our bad GD, the target should be 40 points.

Why, can you really see Blackburn, Wolves, Wigan, Sunderland, West Brom, Norwich and Swansea all getting 39 points ?

IMO, this season will see the lowest points needed for survival in the PL and the lowest points ever for 2nd place and for qualification for the Champions league.

[Mellowhoop]

Agree with Paul...

[qprbrisbanedivision]

Why, can you really see Blackburn, Wolves, Wigan, Sunderland, West Brom, Norwich and Swansea all getting 39 points ?
IMO, this season will see the lowest points needed for survival in the PL and the lowest points ever for 2nd place and for qualification for the Champions league.

NO...but i can see most of them nicking points off of us.....!!

Just a guess!!