Mittal and Mordashov close to takeover?

[Devon Park Ranger]

I don't know anything about a possible takeover, as I am not an ITK, but I find todays rumour of a takeover by Mittal and Mordashov (Russian steel billionaire) plausible.

We know (if we believe various articles):

1. Bernie and Flavio are keen to sell and have hired a financial advisor and set a price
2. Mittal is very keen to buy and have tabled two bids so far, which are rejected
3. There is some distance between the bid and the asking price, believed to be £35m

In order to bridge this gap the buying and selling sides are doing as best as they can. It is plausible that:

- Mittal is searching for a new co owner to share the investment with, and have identified Mordashov, another steel magnat and friend of Mittal, of whom he shares ownership interest in some steel companies. Mordashov is known to be very interested in sport.

- As the buyers are expected to buy out the debt of Bernie and Flavio in addition to buying the 67% stake in the club, the size of the debt is therefore crucial, and any increase in debt might make a transaction harder (and any reduction will make it easier). The fact that B&F are therefore seemingly unwilling to come up with any major funds for new players, even if selling Taarabt, adds to this impression.

It might be clutching a straw, but I find it quite likely that the rumours about an imminent takeover are true. I have been of this impression a long time (a takeover, not neccessary imminent), but have always expected it to take some time, as deals like this almost always do. The complete lack of investments in new players, the lack of a kit sponsor, no announcement of walk-up-prices and the fact that Warnocks seems pretty happy despite seemingly not having a penny to spend three weeks before the season starts add to the likeliness that something is cooking.

However, the strogest evidence is the fact if there were no perspective for a takeover before the transfer window shuts, Bernie & Flavio would run a big risk by not investing in the squad, as it would most likely mean relegation, which is detrimental to their values and chances of getting a good price for the shares and the loans repaid. Bernie is bloody smart, even though some people here thinks the opposite, and if there were no perspective for a deal to be made before the transfer window shuts he wouldn't run such a risk.

I am therefore pretty sure the talks are at an advance stage. The closer we get to the time when it becomes crucial to get new players on board (=mid August), the more willing the respective parties would be to compromise. My guts tell me that there will a deal within a few weeks! You might tell me I am naive, and it might be true, but it is my best assessment of the situation.

I don't think the truth is that far from your assumptions...

No I'm not being naive or clutching at any straws..
We are owned by some of the country's most successful businessmen.. Even if they aren't football fans they know that you often have to invest a little to make some money, and staying in the premier league is worth millions in revenue and adds value to the club and their investment... Something is going on and i just hope it gets sorted out before its too late...

[QPR1976]

Oslo, I really hope you're right, but

I thought it was widely reported Mittals 1st bid was about £35m
Even if a second bid was for £60-65m, thats a hell of an increase.
There was also a recent suggestion of a £91m bid on the table. Again another massive increase.
It doesn't make sense.

Hyperthetically, It's like you or I wanting to buy a house on the market for £500k
Testing the water with an opening bid of £170k
Following it up with a £350k bid
Then upping it to £450k

That's not very likely is it ? Certainly not normal.

[QPROslo]

Oslo, I really hope you're right, but

I thought it was widely reported Mittals 1st bid was about £35m
Even if a second bid was for £60-65m, thats a hell of an increase.
There was also a recent suggestion of a £91m bid on the table. Again another massive increase.
It doesn't make sense.

Hyperthetically, It's like you or I wanting to buy a house on the market for £500k
Testing the water with an opening bid of £170k
Following it up with a £350k bid
Then upping it to £450k

That's not very likely is it ? Certainly not normal.

I agree with you that the many rumours are confusing, to say the least. However, I think those bringing the bids to the publics attention fail to explain what are the conditions of the bid, making it impossible to really understand them properly.

The bids are probably a mix of payment for shares, takeover of for loans secured through the stadium and repayment of unsecured loans.

The first bid reported to be £35m might have been for the shares only. When elsewhere referred to as £60m it might be the shares plus the unsured loans to Bernie and Flavio being paid up at once. If these are £25m (I would think they are higher though) it adds up to £60m. I might well be two ways to present the same bid.

The second bid of £65m might simply be the first bid upped by £5m.

However, the reported third bid of £91m is more difficult to understand, I fully agree with you. However, it might be the shares plus the unsecured loan plus the secured loan plus an improvement. Hard to say really, I admit.

[twranger]

QPROslo, whether your thoughts are proved to be true or complete b0***x, its worth reading over again, for the sheer logic, intelligence, and literacy therein.
A rare commodity here....good man!

[QPR1976]

Fair to say you seem to understand it more than me, Oslo.

I think I see what your saying.
I want to believe but I'm at the point of despair.

[Stanley]

Something is going on and i just hope it gets sorted out before its too late...

Its not in Bernie's best interests for this to be dragged out because the longer it goes on the more QPR becomes devalued - he is well aware of this.

[waterbuffalo]

Hi Morris. I am not an ITK, I just analyze the rumours going around on various message boards (this included), and offer my perspective of it. It is my own assessment, and I might be way off the mark, but I think there are so many things going in the same direction that I feel it might be a good chance something is cooking.

I don't want to create unfounded hopes. Let it be clear: I know nothing, I just bring my own thought on the rumours. They might be wrong, they might be right.

Like all the rest of you I am hoping and praying that a deal will be concluded in time for Warnock to be handed a proper war chest.

If you're right, Oslo, I'm changing my name to waterbuffaloslo, and will support Norway from now on.

[Morris]

Hi Morris. I am not an ITK, I just analyze the rumours going around on various message boards (this included), and offer my perspective of it. It is my own assessment, and I might be way off the mark, but I think there are so many things going in the same direction that I feel it might be a good chance something is cooking.

I don't want to create unfounded hopes. Let it be clear: I know nothing, I just bring my own thought on the rumours. They might be wrong, they might be right.

Like all the rest of you I am hoping and praying that a deal will be concluded in time for Warnock to be handed a proper war chest.

Fair enough mate. Fingers crossed.

[stanistheman]

Something is going on, because there are so many things that just don't make sense.

I.e.
no walk up prices announced.
No new shirts (last three seasons they were made known, although not available to buy, before June
No new sponsorship deal
and of course no signings made other than two frees. Which club wins promotion and doesn't strengthen the squad?
There is no money to spend,even though the SKY TV deal is worth millions per year and Ecclestone is a Billionaire.

It doesn't make sense, because even if they know little about football and care little about QPR, it is Tango & Cash's investment and to not have a new kit and sponsor to cash in on with fans eager to buy shirts, especially as they were still in a very upbeat mood having won promotion.

Also it doesn't make any sense whatsoever, to not make any real effort to improve the squad and thereby the chances of avoiding instant relegation as this will cost the club income and devalue the selling price (Ecclestone has made it clear the club is for sale).

Either they are negotiating to sell the club or T& C are insane to think that the current squad will avoid relegation.

Even if they are hoping that Warnock will quit, he wouldn't do so before the season starts and if they bring in a new manager with only a few days before the transfer window closes, it will be too late to sign new player and QPR will be firmly entrenched at the bottom before the new manager can spend in the January transfer window. And by then it could all be too little, too late to avoid the drop.