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Risky strategy by Bernie and Flavio

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  • Risky strategy by Bernie and Flavio

    If we are to believe what we hear Mittals bid £65m for Bernie and Flvaios 67% ownership in the club. The asking price is £100m. However, the price cannot be for the shares alone, as it would price the entire club at £150m, which us unrealistic. I therefore think the price expectation of B&F is for the shares plus full repayment of the debt owed to them. I think the total debt of the club is around £50-55m by now. Out if this I suppose Mittal & Amit count for around £10-15m, so B&F are owed around £40m. This makes me believe the asking price for the shares is £60m, which might not be completely unrealistic to be honest, but on the high side.

    I think B&F and Mittals are struggling to bridge this wide gap of £35m right now, one way or another. I think it is about finding a ladder for both to step down without losing face. I think B&F's strategy about selling Taarabt without freeing up any money for new player acquisitions is part of his. A sale would generate about £10m for the club (as Spurs are entitled to 40% I understand). If this amount is going as a direct downpayment on the debt of B&F this would reduce the debt and the overall asking price to £90m. I hope this makes it easier for the two parties to find some middle ground around £75- 80m.

    However, B&F are running a high risk strategy. If they don't spend any of the Taarabt money, and a deal is not forthcoming, they will see the transfer window being shut without a proper replacement for our most influential player. Even though we might bring in a few good players in Campbell, Naughton and another two or three I think B&F understand that it is a serious risk that their values are being deteriorated if we struggle big time in the Premier League.

    I admit I am slightly worried by the signal that the Taarabt money won't be spent and that the transfer budget is limited to £1.25m for Campbell. On the other hand it might signal that a deal will really happen, as the consequences for B&F might be really dire if there is no transaction. With one party so keen to buy and another so desperate to sell I would be very surprised not to see the deal going through in the next few weeks.

  • #2
    Depends on WHEN in the next few weeks.
    If it is sooner, I think the Mittals would move heaven and earth to keep Taarabt and strengthen.
    But if it is later, it might be too late to save Taarabt OR strengthen by the time they get in.
    This is my worry -- if either party were truly concerned about the footballing side of things, things would have moved by now.
    Faurlin is my hero!!! Love him!!! #########

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    • #3
      The Mittals wouldve bought us by now if they had any plans for a succesful season. We must put a squad together now not in January! My conclusion is they dont want too buy us! Our current owners are disinterested except for our cash. Ive always tried to remain positive but as the season approaches i feel nothing but dread!
      All those that believe in telekinesis raise my hand


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      • #4
        Let's make one thing clear. B&F couldn't care less about the mess they leave our club as long as they get a good return. The Mittals can't be seen to just give in and pay inflated prices or the same will happen when they enter the transfer market for players.

        It's about timing and my bet is we will leave it too late and struggle before January. Can Warnock keep us within touching distance to keep us up with a win at Man City on the last day of the season or will we need to go down to come back stronger with proper owners?

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        • #5
          =Rich;658824 or will we need to go down to come back stronger with proper owners?
          It's a reluctant choice I'd take

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          • #6
            I actually think Flav DID care about the club when he bought in. I'm not sure Bernie really did or even Lakshmi, though I think the possible future saving grace is Amit's passion for the club. Flav's mistake was believing HE knew how to achieve success in UK football and (if we ignore that for a moment) seriously underestimating the funds it would take to achieve real success.

            Now, Flav knows he is hated by vast majority of fans, I don't know if that bothers him, but I don't think he really cares anymore about the club whether it does or doesn't. He just wants to walk away with a profit. While I haven't given up all hope of a beneficial takeover in time to keep us up, I think it is unlikely to happen in time. That for me, means relegation (quite possibly with less points than Derby managed) is an absolute certainty in the absence of a takeover. There is no doubt whatsoever about that. I foresee a humiliating season unless the Mittals or someone can buy us quickly.

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