Goals Myth

[sirpiechucker]

The stat about Birmingham doesn't hide anything. They scored 54 in 46, we've scored 51 in 32. They conceded 37 in 46, which is 0.8 goals a game and we've conceded 20 in 32, which is 0.6 goals a game. After 32 matches, Birmingham had 60 points and after 32 matches we have 61. The stats show that team which finished 2nd with 83 points conceded on average more goals a game, scored fewer, had fewer points and the same stage and despite all this went on to finish 2nd with more points than WBA managed the previous season and were Champions. More points than Forest last season. Enough points IMO that if we emulate we will go up.

[Rich]

All this depends on what happens this season though. If you allocated each of our other 6 promotion competitors a point each when they play each other and 3 points against anyone lower, then we would need more than some random picked averages from past seasons. I know it's unlikely they will all win say the remaining 9 or 10 of their games but if they do and then add in the point for the other say 5 games that would take even Leicester to 83, or 85 if it's 10 wins and 4 draws. The others woudl be up around 90....So it's feasible we could need 29 points from our last 14 games, 9 wins and 2 draws...

[sirpiechucker]

All this depends on what happens this season though. If you allocated each of our other 6 promotion competitors a point each when they play each other and 3 points against anyone lower, then we would need more than some random picked averages from past seasons. I know it's unlikely they will all win say the remaining 9 or 10 of their games but if they do and then add in the point for the other say 5 games that would take even Leicester to 83, or 85 if it's 10 wins and 4 draws. The others woudl be up around 90....So it's feasible we could need 29 points from our last 14 games, 9 wins and 2 draws...

But that's the point it doesn't work out like that. Averages are a far more accurate than what ifs. Forest did the double over Cardiff so Cardiff didn't pick up 1 point in each game like you suggest could happen in matches between the top 6. We beat Swansea and Cardiff but lost to Norwich so again we gained points and lost points rather than the 1 point per game.

Also the Scunny result and the 4 other losses Forest have suffered show that they won't win all their remaining matches, same as all the other teams.

Today Cardiff average 1.72 points a match, on Jan 30th they averaged 1.74, on Dec 30th they averaged 1.74. Of course they've averaged more than this and less than but over a two month period they've average the same points per game ratio which is far more accurate than predicting that they'd win this match or that match.

I understand that if you score 5 goals in one match and 3 in your next that you average something you've never actually achieved e.g. 4 goals a game. But if you take 10 years of results and find an average chances are that you'll have a clear understanding of what happened and what potentially can happen.

[JonDoeman]

The stat about Birmingham doesn't hide anything. They scored 54 in 46, we've scored 51 in 32. They conceded 37 in 46, which is 0.8 goals a game and we've conceded 20 in 32, which is 0.6 goals a game. After 32 matches, Birmingham had 60 points and after 32 matches we have 61. The stats show that team which finished 2nd with 83 points conceded on average more goals a game, scored fewer, had fewer points and the same stage and despite all this went on to finish 2nd with more points than WBA managed the previous season and were Champions. More points than Forest last season. Enough points IMO that if we emulate we will go up.

Yeah I know they are good stats, just an excuse to put up a bikini pic !

[kron-1664]

stats shmats, averaging goals per game is pointless, for example you could hammer in 6 then put in 1 per game for the next 4 games and loose them all , your goals would still be 2 in 5 , on the surface good , your conceeding could be 8 goals , but all may come in 2s agains the 4 teams we only scored 1 against, ie only 3 points.

Or, you could score 10 in 5, the opposition score 8 but that could mean we score 2 per game, the opposition score 6 in one but singles in 4 games and we would have a net point total of 12.

its pointless, u have to look at the tabler for a true picture, at the moment we are the best team in the league

[QPR1976]

Can I just say, I couldn't give a flying one about the last 10 games.
They are history, nothing we can do to change them.

I'm far more interested in the next 10 games.