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The average points for the team finishing in 3rd place over the past 10 seasons is 81. But this is just an average meaning that teams have accumulated more and fewer than this. For instance Forest finished 3rd last season with 79 points, Sheffield United were 3rd in 08/09 with 80 points and Hull came 3rd in 07/08 with 75 points. Before that the teams have finished in 3rd with 84 (Derby), 81 (Watford), 85 (Ipswich), 79 (Sunderland), 80 (Sheffield United), 86 (Wolves), 87 (Bolton).
So in fact only four of the 10 teams finishing 3rd ended with more than 81 points and two of those teams Wolves and Bolton finished 3rd nine and 10 years ago and the norm since has been a much lower points total. If you take a quick look at my signature you'll see what the 10 year average is after 31 matches and although many (even maybe myself included) think it could be a high scoring season it's pretty much average (or even slighty below). Even if Forest win their game in hand that would push Cardiff into 3rd with 55 points but Forest would be nearly three points behind the average and we're already four points behind it.
If we're heading for a typically average season and not a mad mass of points which has been previously predicted then 3rd place should finish with around 81/82 points. This weekend we see four teams (Cardiff, Forest, Leeds and Norwich) all of whom can't pick up points and even if Cardiff and Norwich were to win they'd still have an average points total. All in all it's going to take a big run from at least three teams to push this season's final totals anywhere near that of 2000-2002. The loss ratio of the top 4 is slightly lower than that of last year hence why I think it will be slightly higher than the 79 points last year. The win ratio though is also lower than that of the top 4. Newcastle had a 65% win ratio, Cardiff and us have just 51% in comparison. Norwich's win ratio this season (which will be the same as Forest's if they win their game in hand) is just 0.6% more than Forest when they finish 3rd last year.
So what does all of this mean? Well if ratios, points totals and all the other stuff are basically average then we (who already need 5 points fewer than Cardiff) could require just another 22 points. I'd still want 25 (45 would be lovely) but 25 with our goal difference should be enough especially if we don't lose at Cardiff. Since January 1st we've averaged 1.625 points per game that averaged over the next 15 games is 24 points. We've not even be playing that well so if we improve only slightly then we should have enough with a couple of games to spare.
BUT as we've already seen this season Cardiff and Swansea have lost twice to teams in the bottom six, Norwich lost at home to Palace, Forest lost to Scunny and Leeds lost that amazing game against Preston. We will probably lose to a team we expect to beat. We will lose again this season maybe even a couple of times but we need just one more goal that the team in 3rd. It might end up being tight but I'd rather have our opposition and our points tally than anyone else in this division.
Just remember even if we lose eight and win seven we will finish with 81 points, which is more than Forest last season and more than Sheffield United before than and more than Hull before that. Feel free to vent if we lose tomorrow but put things into perspective before you do so. All the teams around us have lost to teams in the bottom six so if we do lose we'll still be top at the end of the weekend. It will still be in our hands.
So in fact only four of the 10 teams finishing 3rd ended with more than 81 points and two of those teams Wolves and Bolton finished 3rd nine and 10 years ago and the norm since has been a much lower points total. If you take a quick look at my signature you'll see what the 10 year average is after 31 matches and although many (even maybe myself included) think it could be a high scoring season it's pretty much average (or even slighty below). Even if Forest win their game in hand that would push Cardiff into 3rd with 55 points but Forest would be nearly three points behind the average and we're already four points behind it.
If we're heading for a typically average season and not a mad mass of points which has been previously predicted then 3rd place should finish with around 81/82 points. This weekend we see four teams (Cardiff, Forest, Leeds and Norwich) all of whom can't pick up points and even if Cardiff and Norwich were to win they'd still have an average points total. All in all it's going to take a big run from at least three teams to push this season's final totals anywhere near that of 2000-2002. The loss ratio of the top 4 is slightly lower than that of last year hence why I think it will be slightly higher than the 79 points last year. The win ratio though is also lower than that of the top 4. Newcastle had a 65% win ratio, Cardiff and us have just 51% in comparison. Norwich's win ratio this season (which will be the same as Forest's if they win their game in hand) is just 0.6% more than Forest when they finish 3rd last year.
So what does all of this mean? Well if ratios, points totals and all the other stuff are basically average then we (who already need 5 points fewer than Cardiff) could require just another 22 points. I'd still want 25 (45 would be lovely) but 25 with our goal difference should be enough especially if we don't lose at Cardiff. Since January 1st we've averaged 1.625 points per game that averaged over the next 15 games is 24 points. We've not even be playing that well so if we improve only slightly then we should have enough with a couple of games to spare.
BUT as we've already seen this season Cardiff and Swansea have lost twice to teams in the bottom six, Norwich lost at home to Palace, Forest lost to Scunny and Leeds lost that amazing game against Preston. We will probably lose to a team we expect to beat. We will lose again this season maybe even a couple of times but we need just one more goal that the team in 3rd. It might end up being tight but I'd rather have our opposition and our points tally than anyone else in this division.
Just remember even if we lose eight and win seven we will finish with 81 points, which is more than Forest last season and more than Sheffield United before than and more than Hull before that. Feel free to vent if we lose tomorrow but put things into perspective before you do so. All the teams around us have lost to teams in the bottom six so if we do lose we'll still be top at the end of the weekend. It will still be in our hands.
NPower Champions 2010/2011
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