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Okay, this one is hardly a breakthrough in scientific thinking but I've had a look at Forest's run and our sequence of results and if someone has already spotted this and mentioned it then I apologise.
The fixtures below are the matches that we've already played and the teams in red are teams which currently sit in the bottom half of the division (note that this is where they sit now but that isn't to say it was where they were when we played them).
QPR: Fixtures Played to Date 2010/11 - Teams in RED are teams currently in the bottom half
versus Barnsley
versus Sheffield United
versus Scunny
versus Derby
versus Middlesbrough
versus Ipswich Town
versus Leicester City
versus Doncaster
versus Millwall
versus Crystal Palace
versus Norwich City
versus Swansea City
versus Bristol City
versus Burnley
versus Reading
versus Portsmouth
versus Nottingham Forest
versus Preston North End
versus Cardiff City
versus Watford
versus Leeds United
versus Swansea City
versus Coventry
versus Norwich City
versus Bristol City
versus Burnley
versus Coventry
versus Hull City
versus Portsmouth
versus Reading
First 15 matches we played 9 of the current bottom half and 6 of the current top half. The 2nd set of matches was a reversal of the first set. In the 2nd set we played 6 bottom half and 9 top half sides. We managed 33 points (2.2 points per game) from the first set of matches and 26 points (1.73 points per game) from the 2nd set.
In contrast this is Forest's set of fixtures and again the teams in RED are teams currently sitting in the bottom half of the division.
Forest: Fixtures Played to Date 2010/11 - Teams in RED are teams currently in the bottom half
versus Burnley
versus Leeds United
versus Reading
versus Norwich City
versus Millwall
versus Preston North End
versus Hull City
versus Swansea City
versus Sheffield United
versus Doncaster
versus Barnsley
versus Middlesbrough
versus Ipswich Town
versus Portsmouth
versus Watford
versus Coventry
versus QPR
versus Cardiff City
versus Leicester City
versus Crystal Palace
versus Derby
versus Barnsley
versus Ipswich Town
versus Portsmouth
versus Derby
versus Bristol City
versus Coventry
versus Watford
In Forest's opening eight matches they played seven of the teams currently sitting in the top half and only PNE who sit in the bottom half. Our opening matches were the reversal where we only played one team currently in the top half and even they were struggling when we played them.
This isn't to say that our results have been fortunate because of the opposition it's actually to show why there has been a dip in form for us and why such a surge from Forest. As already mentioned Forest played seven of the top half teams in their opening eight matches and managed just 11 points. In their last eight matches they've played seven of the bottom half teams and managed 22 points. In our previous eight matches half of them have been against top half teams compared to Forest's one match.
In the last 15 matches Forest have played 10 matches against teams currently in the bottom half and accumulated 33 points. QPR in their first 15 matches played 9 matches against teams currently in the bottom half and accumulated 33 points.
In summary, there are no easy games in this division but of course there are easier games than others. We started with the lesser teams and picked up a lot of points and have struggled against the harder teams. Forest started against the harder teams and struggled to win points and have picked up points against the lesser teams.
QPR have played 15 matches against teams in the top half, Forest have played just 12. As we can't play against ourselves this means we have just 7 more matches against teams from the top half (4 at home and 3 away) compared with Forest who have 10 (5 at home and 5 away). We to date have managed 22 points from those 15 matches (1.46 points per game) whilst Forest have managed just 16 from 12 (1.33 points per game).
Forest have played 16 matches against teams in the bottom half, QPR have played 15 matches. They have a further 8 matches to play against these teams where we have 9. To date Forest have averaged 2.25 points per game where as we have averaged 2.46 points per game against the lower half teams.
Unfortunately life isn't this simple but if both teams were to continue to average the points they've accumulated to date then this is what would happen:
Forest versus top half: 10x1.33 = 13.30
Forest versus bottom half: 8x2.25 = 18
QPR versus top half: 7x1.46 = 10.22
QPR versus bottom half: 9x2.46 = 22.14
As I said life isn't as simple as this but if the average were to continue we'd still accumulate more points than Forest although we will have played two games fewer and QPR would end on 91 points.
The fixtures below are the matches that we've already played and the teams in red are teams which currently sit in the bottom half of the division (note that this is where they sit now but that isn't to say it was where they were when we played them).
QPR: Fixtures Played to Date 2010/11 - Teams in RED are teams currently in the bottom half
versus Barnsley
versus Sheffield United
versus Scunny
versus Derby
versus Middlesbrough
versus Ipswich Town
versus Leicester City
versus Doncaster
versus Millwall
versus Crystal Palace
versus Norwich City
versus Swansea City
versus Bristol City
versus Burnley
versus Reading
versus Portsmouth
versus Nottingham Forest
versus Preston North End
versus Cardiff City
versus Watford
versus Leeds United
versus Swansea City
versus Coventry
versus Norwich City
versus Bristol City
versus Burnley
versus Coventry
versus Hull City
versus Portsmouth
versus Reading
First 15 matches we played 9 of the current bottom half and 6 of the current top half. The 2nd set of matches was a reversal of the first set. In the 2nd set we played 6 bottom half and 9 top half sides. We managed 33 points (2.2 points per game) from the first set of matches and 26 points (1.73 points per game) from the 2nd set.
In contrast this is Forest's set of fixtures and again the teams in RED are teams currently sitting in the bottom half of the division.
Forest: Fixtures Played to Date 2010/11 - Teams in RED are teams currently in the bottom half
versus Burnley
versus Leeds United
versus Reading
versus Norwich City
versus Millwall
versus Preston North End
versus Hull City
versus Swansea City
versus Sheffield United
versus Doncaster
versus Barnsley
versus Middlesbrough
versus Ipswich Town
versus Portsmouth
versus Watford
versus Coventry
versus QPR
versus Cardiff City
versus Leicester City
versus Crystal Palace
versus Derby
versus Barnsley
versus Ipswich Town
versus Portsmouth
versus Derby
versus Bristol City
versus Coventry
versus Watford
In Forest's opening eight matches they played seven of the teams currently sitting in the top half and only PNE who sit in the bottom half. Our opening matches were the reversal where we only played one team currently in the top half and even they were struggling when we played them.
This isn't to say that our results have been fortunate because of the opposition it's actually to show why there has been a dip in form for us and why such a surge from Forest. As already mentioned Forest played seven of the top half teams in their opening eight matches and managed just 11 points. In their last eight matches they've played seven of the bottom half teams and managed 22 points. In our previous eight matches half of them have been against top half teams compared to Forest's one match.
In the last 15 matches Forest have played 10 matches against teams currently in the bottom half and accumulated 33 points. QPR in their first 15 matches played 9 matches against teams currently in the bottom half and accumulated 33 points.
In summary, there are no easy games in this division but of course there are easier games than others. We started with the lesser teams and picked up a lot of points and have struggled against the harder teams. Forest started against the harder teams and struggled to win points and have picked up points against the lesser teams.
QPR have played 15 matches against teams in the top half, Forest have played just 12. As we can't play against ourselves this means we have just 7 more matches against teams from the top half (4 at home and 3 away) compared with Forest who have 10 (5 at home and 5 away). We to date have managed 22 points from those 15 matches (1.46 points per game) whilst Forest have managed just 16 from 12 (1.33 points per game).
Forest have played 16 matches against teams in the bottom half, QPR have played 15 matches. They have a further 8 matches to play against these teams where we have 9. To date Forest have averaged 2.25 points per game where as we have averaged 2.46 points per game against the lower half teams.
Unfortunately life isn't this simple but if both teams were to continue to average the points they've accumulated to date then this is what would happen:
Forest versus top half: 10x1.33 = 13.30
Forest versus bottom half: 8x2.25 = 18
QPR versus top half: 7x1.46 = 10.22
QPR versus bottom half: 9x2.46 = 22.14
As I said life isn't as simple as this but if the average were to continue we'd still accumulate more points than Forest although we will have played two games fewer and QPR would end on 91 points.
NPower Champions 2010/2011
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