The Run In

[sirpiechucker]

Okay more like a marathon with 20 matches to go than a simple run in...

I've concentrated solely on the top 6 but am fully aware that the likes of Portsmouth, Burnley, Forest, Reading and Leicester sit not too far behind and could easily catch up with so many games to go. But whilst we are top and the other 5 teams around us continue to occupy those places I've focused on just those 6 teams in this thread.

Matches Remaining:
Watford: 21
QPR: 20
Cardiff: 20
Norwich: 20
Swansea: 19
Leeds: 19

Home Matches Remaining:
Cardiff: 11
QPR: 10
Watford: 10
Swansea: 9
Norwich: 9
Leeds: 9

Away Matches Remaining:
Cardiff: 9
QPR: 10
Swansea: 10
Norwich: 10
Leeds: 10
Watford: 11

Total Number of Matches remaining versus Teams currently sitting in the Top 12:
Watford: 11
Leeds: 10
QPR: 9
Swansea: 9
Cardiff: 9
Norwich: 9

Number of Home Matches versus Teams currently sitting in the Top 12:
Leeds: 6
Swansea: 6
Watford: 5
QPR: 4
Cardiff: 4
Norwich: 4

Number of Away Matches versus Teams currently sitting in the Top 12:
Watford: 6
QPR: 5
Cardiff: 5
Norwich: 5
Leeds: 4
Swansea: 3

Number of Matches Remaining against Teams currently in the bottom 6:
QPR: 6
Watford: 6
Cardiff: 6
Swansea: 5
Norwich: 4
Leeds: 4

I think the numbers so far read quite well for us. We don't have the fewest number of games to play, we have more home games than some, fewer away games than some, fewer matches against teams in the top 12 and more matches against teams at the bottom.

QPR have to play the teams currently lying in 5th, 8th, 11th, 12th, 13th and so on at home and if you were to add the position together and find an average for both home and away you get the following results (the lower the number the higher the teams are currently in the league):

Opposition Average for Remaining Home Matches:
Swansea: 10.4
Leeds: 10.78
Watford: 13.6
Cardiff: 13.6
Norwich: 14.2
QPR: 14.4

Opposition Average for Remaining Home Matches:
Watford: 11.5
Norwich: 12.3
QPR: 13.4
Cardiff: 13.6
Leeds: 14.0
Swansea: 16.1

Just to clarify if QPR had to play 5th, 10th and 15th the total sum would be 5+10+15 =30 divided by 3 which equals 10. Meaning that the average we would have to play against is 10th. Not a completely accurate or scientific way of looking at things but this gives an idea of how tough the opposition roughly is. Watford's opposition away from home is roughly 5 teams higher than Swansea's.

Obviously things change all the time but hopefully this gives you an idea of who we still have left to play compared with our rivals.

[oldhoop]

Brilliant as always SPC

[JoshQPR]

Another Brilliant Take On Things SPC

On Paper Not Looking To Bad For Us , But In This League Anything Can And Normally Does Happen !

[rodman]

Sir pie - you truly are the undisputed King of stats.

Interesting read but IMO for what it's worth - if we simply buy / loan someone who will start to put away all the chances we create then all permutations of results will be irrellevant cos we will go up.
Simples!

[Ric-Roc]

You have way too much time on your hands SPC.

But no denying superb post & plenty of food for thought.

[Factamondo]

............kinell sirps...............what are the stats reguarding leighsie losing four stone before easter????

[maccatwo]

I believe with the remaining games we need 40 point from possible 63 and then we up so lets up we start Sunday with 3.

[sirpiechucker]

You have way too much time on your hands SPC.

But no denying superb post & plenty of food for thought.

Or just a boss who doesn't have a clue that I'm not actually working

[Gerryhatrick]

Can you project a final league position table SPC, or will it be too hard for us to take?

My projections have
Norwich 90 pts
QPR 85
Watford 85

Curious what yours looks like ...............

[Ric-Roc]

Or just a boss who doesn't have a clue that I'm not actually working

I like it

[keep the faith]

Great read ...In NW I trust come on your R'SSSSSS

[maccatwo]

QPR 89
Swansea 87
Watford 85
Cardiff 85
Leeds 79
Norwich 78

Points may not be right but I do believe these finishing places

[Toni German]

I have Norwich and Leeds as the main threats.

Cardiff to fizzle out like a damp sparkler.

The Leeds game on the final day could be crucial.

[sirpiechucker]

Can you project a final league position table SPC, or will it be too hard for us to take?

My projections have
Norwich 90 pts
QPR 85
Watford 85

Curious what yours looks like ...............

I haven't really made a projection firstly because of not wanting to jinx anything but secondly (being me) I'm never entirely sure what to base it on - recent form, overall form, quality of opposition?

If you were looking purely at Watford's season form then after dividing the number of points by the number of games played (for both home and away) that would mean a further 17 points from their remaining 10 home matches and 18 points from their remaining 12 away matches mean they'd finish on 77 points but if you predicted them based on their last 8 matches then form would say they'll win the league with many matches to go and if you look at their opposition then I'd probably say different again.

Automatically you'd say that they won't get much at Forest (nobody has won there in a long time) and beat Reading away (they've not beaten any of the top 9 this season) but sometimes both sets of fortunes have to change. Forest will lose at some point and Reading will beat one of the top 9 at some point.

We've beaten all of the bottom 6 and there is no reason why we can't beat them all again. 3 of the matches are at home and 2 of them are against the bottom 2 but Scunny have only won once at home this season so like what I said about Forest and Reading at some point Scunny will win again or probability says they will.

I'm going to get a sore backside and sit firmly on the fence but I will say with the opposition we've still got to play and with everything else I've said in the opening post if we don't go up automatically then something serious has happened. It's our best opportunity basically since we were relegated and more importantly it's in our hands. We aren't playing catch up.

[theblackmafia.]

Okay more like a marathon with 20 matches to go than a simple run in...

I've concentrated solely on the top 6 but am fully aware that the likes of Portsmouth, Burnley, Forest, Reading and Leicester sit not too far behind and could easily catch up with so many games to go. But whilst we are top and the other 5 teams around us continue to occupy those places I've focused on just those 6 teams in this thread.

Matches Remaining:
Watford: 21
QPR: 20
Cardiff: 20
Norwich: 20
Swansea: 19
Leeds: 19

Home Matches Remaining:
Cardiff: 11
QPR: 10
Watford: 10
Swansea: 9
Norwich: 9
Leeds: 9

Away Matches Remaining:
Cardiff: 9
QPR: 10
Swansea: 10
Norwich: 10
Leeds: 10
Watford: 11

Total Number of Matches remaining versus Teams currently sitting in the Top 12:
Watford: 11
Leeds: 10
QPR: 9
Swansea: 9
Cardiff: 9
Norwich: 9

Number of Home Matches versus Teams currently sitting in the Top 12:
Leeds: 6
Swansea: 6
Watford: 5
QPR: 4
Cardiff: 4
Norwich: 4

Number of Away Matches versus Teams currently sitting in the Top 12:
Watford: 6
QPR: 5
Cardiff: 5
Norwich: 5
Leeds: 4
Swansea: 3

Number of Matches Remaining against Teams currently in the bottom 6:
QPR: 6
Watford: 6
Cardiff: 6
Swansea: 5
Norwich: 4
Leeds: 4

I think the numbers so far read quite well for us. We don't have the fewest number of games to play, we have more home games than some, fewer away games than some, fewer matches against teams in the top 12 and more matches against teams at the bottom.

QPR have to play the teams currently lying in 5th, 8th, 11th, 12th, 13th and so on at home and if you were to add the position together and find an average for both home and away you get the following results (the lower the number the higher the teams are currently in the league):

Opposition Average for Remaining Home Matches:
Swansea: 10.4
Leeds: 10.78
Watford: 13.6
Cardiff: 13.6
Norwich: 14.2
QPR: 14.4

Opposition Average for Remaining Home Matches:
Watford: 11.5
Norwich: 12.3
QPR: 13.4
Cardiff: 13.6
Leeds: 14.0
Swansea: 16.1

Just to clarify if QPR had to play 5th, 10th and 15th the total sum would be 5+10+15 =30 divided by 3 which equals 10. Meaning that the average we would have to play against is 10th. Not a completely accurate or scientific way of looking at things but this gives an idea of how tough the opposition roughly is. Watford's opposition away from home is roughly 5 teams higher than Swansea's.

Obviously things change all the time but hopefully this gives you an idea of who we still have left to play compared with our rivals.

Yep!