The Last 11 Matches

[sirpiechucker]

I'm not the type to moan or whinge and I've defended the fact we don't have a natural goalscorer on a numbers of times. I've highlighted how well we are doing in comparison with other teams who've gained promotion and I've usually been the one to promote the positive aspects of our games but with the January transfer window fast approaching I thought I'd point out just how we've been doing in front of goal and how a new lease of life is required.

Firstly, in our opening 10 matches we managed 26 out of a possible 30 points but since we've managed just 15 from the remaining 11 or 15 out of 33. We all know that we sit proudly at the top of the table and we all know this is beyond most peoples expectations. But other than a very good second half against Cardiff, the odd moment against a poor Preston and a very good response to 4 straight draws with 10 men against Reading we've seen very little in the last 11 matches that comes anywhere near the level of performance as we did in the first 10 matches. Will two and half good performances out of every 11 matches win us promotion? Doubtful.

First 10 matches:
* P10, W8, D2, L0, F24, A3, Pts 26
* 8 Clean Sheets
* 2.4 goals a game
* A goal conceded every 3.3 games
* 80% win ratio
* Goal difference of +21

Last 11 matches:
* P11, W3, D6, L2, F12, A11, Pts 15
* 3 Clean Sheets
* 1.09 goals a game
* A goal a game conceded
* 27% win ratio
* Goal difference of +1

Mackie, Clarke and Helguson have all failed to score in those 11 matches. Hulse and Agyemang have scored a tap in each whilst we've had to rely on Taraabt who has scored 5 of the 12 goals (40%).

The only bit of positivity I can spin into this is that over the last 11 matches we've averaged 1.36 points per game meaning if we continued at this average for the remaining 25 matches we'd finish with 75 points which has been enough to finish in the top 6 for the whole of this century (but we'd enter the play offs with very little form).

I'm delighted that we are top. I've been delighted with our early season form but IMO we've been fortunate that Cardiff, Swansea, Coventry, Norwich and Derby have all dipped in form as well. Swansea have achieved just 3 points more than us over the last 11 matches, Cardiff have achieved just 2 points more than us, Coventry and Norwich just 1 point more and Derby the same. Now that Leeds, Pompey and Forest have closed the gap and made the league tighter than before we are no longer battling with 1 or 2 team but 7 or 8 and as others have said unless we do strengthen or rediscover that early season form then we will be left behind.

[Rich]

Yep, very true. NW will be aware though and we will improve again, starting Boxing day.

[Robsondinho]

good read sirpie

[Rebel R's]

ya so need to see how the next 4 games go before deciding whether we need to bring players in january,when it is so blatenly obvious we need them now!

[sirpiechucker]

ya so need to see how the next 4 games go before deciding whether we need to bring players in january,when it is so blatenly obvious we need them now!

NW will argue not if we rediscover that early season form. Yes it was a while ago but if (and it appears to be a big if) we were to win the next four games and win them convincingly then why "rock the boat"?

The transfer window doesn't close until we've played 6 (potentially 7 league games if the Hull game is rescheduled during January). If we slump totally in form by the 2nd time we played Coventry we still have a week of the window to bring in players. As most signings normally happen in that final week that NW might want to see whether or not the players who got us top can keep us there.

[Loftladder]

It is typical of most posts about "form" to completely ignore the fact that football is a game played between two teams. Both of which have "form". If you play a bad team who are out of form you will probably win ......etc.

Our first ten games included those against teams currently 16, 17, 20, 21, 22 and 23. All of which we won. The highest team we played in those ten games was Derby currently 9th.

In the next 11 games we have played teams currently 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10 and surprise surprise it got harder.

Confidence and a settled team are two important ingredients in form. The games coming up between now and the end of the window include 4th at home, 6 away, 5 away, 19 home, 12 away, 6 home and you would not necessarily expect us to win more than a couple of those, which will be OK if the others are mainly draws.

Transfer speculation is no good for confidence and a settled team so I would guess that NW will dampen talk of signings and refrain from getting involved unless something really special is on offer.

[sirpiechucker]

It is typical of most posts about "form" to completely ignore the fact that football is a game played between two teams. Both of which have "form". If you play a bad team who are out of form you will probably win ......etc.

Our first ten games included those against teams currently 16, 17, 20, 21, 22 and 23. All of which we won. The highest team we played in those ten games was Derby currently 9th.

In the next 11 games we have played teams currently 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10 and surprise surprise it got harder.

Confidence and a settled team are two important ingredients in form. The games coming up between now and the end of the window include 4th at home, 6 away, 5 away, 19 home, 12 away, 6 home and you would not necessarily expect us to win more than a couple of those, which will be OK if the others are mainly draws.

Transfer speculation is no good for confidence and a settled team so I would guess that NW will dampen talk of signings and refrain from getting involved unless something really special is on offer.

Sorry I'm slightly puzzled by your definition of form.

Leeds are currently 2nd but they sat in 4th before we played them. But over the previous 6 matches they had accumulated the most points and therefore were the form team in the division.

Also when we played the first 10 matches those clubs were in different league positions than they are now. Before we played Ipswich they were 3rd in the division after beating them they slipped to 5th before climbing up to 2nd when they beat Cardiff but now sit 17th.

You are saying that because they are 17th now that somehow they were an easier game than say Leeds because Leeds are 2nd although when we actually played both clubs Ipswich were actually higher in the division then when we played Leeds.

Form is about the recent successes/failures of those sides. We might sit on top of the division but in terms of form we aren't the number 1 side - Leeds are.

[Rich]

I think the point Loft is making is that those sides, after having numerous matches, now sit closer to their "real" position.

However, I do completely agree it's more to do with QPR, as we own 50% of those outfield players in each match we play....If you catch my drift.

[sirpiechucker]

I think the point Loft is making is that those sides, after having numerous matches, now sit closer to their "real" position.

However, I do completely agree it's more to do with QPR, as we own 50% of those outfield players in each match we play....If you catch my drift.

Where I'm confused is where he says "The highest team we played in those ten games was Derby currently 9th". They maybe currently 9th but they, like Ipswich, like Millwall were in different positions when we played them. Ipswich weren't 17th, Derby weren't 9th, Millwall weren't 14th. At the time all of the sides we played were either in better or worse form than they are now. Derby weren't the highest team we played during those 10 matches.

[Frode]

Where I'm confused is where he says "The highest team we played in those ten games was Derby currently 9th". They maybe currently 9th but they, like Ipswich, like Millwall were in different positions when we played them. Ipswich weren't 17th, Derby weren't 9th, Millwall weren't 14th. At the time all of the sides we played were either in better or worse form than they are now. Derby weren't the highest team we played during those 10 matches.

His point is still valid. The last 11 was against better opposition. Tough away games at Swansea, Pompey, Forest and Leeds who all were in great form at the time. In the first 10 we had diffucult trips to Sheffield, Ipswich and Leicester on paper, but they have all had very poor seasons. We now have a even tougher run of matches ahead. So I agree with Warnock, if we are in the top 2 after the Burnley match I'll be delighted

[stainrodisalegend]

I agree with every word of that Sir Pie and very glad you have come round to the thinking of those of us who have been saying that whilst the season has been brilliant, things are not quite as rosy as they might appear. Just a bit puzzled though why you suddenly come out with this when at least the implication of lots of other posts from you has been that we are on course for promotion.

[sirpiechucker]

I agree with every word of that Sir Pie and very glad you have come round to the thinking of those of us who have been saying that whilst the season has been brilliant, things are not quite as rosy as they might appear. Just a bit puzzled though why you suddenly come out with this when at least the implication of lots of other posts from you has been that we are on course for promotion.

I still think we have a very good shot and I still think that many teams are far too reliant on one or two players and of late that could be said about us. Earlier on in the season the likes of Ephraim, Mackie and even Agyemang were contributing and we didn't look like a one man side. What I've seen recently is that when Taraabt plays badly so do we. That wasn't the case before and we appeared to have strength in depth now we are playing centre backs in the centre of midfield and plays like Derry and Gorkss look like the desperately need a rest but we don't have the quality to cover them.

I won't say I've had my head in the sand but it's been very easy to look at the bigger picture (unbeaten after 19 matches, not conceding many, highest goal scorers at different points etc) and forget to look at the recent results and see that this team is struggling.

[sirpiechucker]

His point is still valid. The last 11 was against better opposition. Tough away games at Swansea, Pompey, Forest and Leeds who all were in great form at the time. In the first 10 we had diffucult trips to Sheffield, Ipswich and Leicester on paper, but they have all had very poor seasons. We now have a even tougher run of matches ahead. So I agree with Warnock, if we are in the top 2 after the Burnley match I'll be delighted

Hypothetical scenario:

Preston lose their opening 20 matches but will their next 10 matches and sit bottom of the division with 30 points from 30 matches with us next to play. Following this match we have to play the team in 2nd who've had just lost their last couple of matches and have not won in 5 which team is the form team?

If my understanding of Loftladder's definition of form is correct then the team in 2nd is the harder team. However I disagree with this and believe that form is about the results and performances of a teams last few matches versus another team with exactly the same thing. If QPR were to play a team who had just won 10 in a row wouldn't this be a harder match than if we had to play a team who had not won in 5 matches?

[stainrodisalegend]

I still think we have a very good shot and I still think that many teams are far too reliant on one or two players and of late that could be said about us. Earlier on in the season the likes of Ephraim, Mackie and even Agyemang were contributing and we didn't look like a one man side. What I've seen recently is that when Taraabt plays badly so do we. That wasn't the case before and we appeared to have strength in depth now we are playing centre backs in the centre of midfield and plays like Derry and Gorkss look like the desperately need a rest but we don't have the quality to cover them.

I won't say I've had my head in the sand but it's been very easy to look at the bigger picture (unbeaten after 19 matches, not conceding many, highest goal scorers at different points etc) and forget to look at the recent results and see that this team is struggling.

It was indeed an incredible run but I also think it was pretty obvious from the performances - with some notable exceptions - that we have trailed off. That's not a criticism of this group of players as they have substantially over-achieved. But the point it is we don't strengthen and we slide down the table it cannot be viewed as a surprise.

[sirpiechucker]

It was indeed an incredible run but I also think it was pretty obvious from the performances - with some notable exceptions - that we have trailed off. That's not a criticism of this group of players as they have substantially over-achieved. But the point it is we don't strengthen and we slide down the table it cannot be viewed as a surprise.

I don't remember a single (sane) person predicting that we would do as well as we have done and this transfer window is extremely important but I understand the importance of unity and I can understand Warnock keeping his cards close to his chest as he won't want to run the risk of unsettling the squad with talk of players coming and going.

We can't do anything until we've played the 4 matches so I also understand the reasons for looking at how we are performing before deciding whether to turn enquiries into proper deals or have faith with those who have performed far better then we expected. Also as I've previously mentioned the loan transfer window closes after we've played 38 matches meaning we do have plenty of time to bring players in if we don't make new signings straight away.