21 matches in...

[sirpiechucker]

Whenever I start a statistical thread I'm never too sure what I'm going to find. I never set out with a particular idea or argument just a few thoughts and see what did actually happen. So if the following stats either paint the current situation extremely positively or negatively then I apologise if you don't like what they say.

Anyway, 21 games in and how have the past Champions/Runners Up done at this stage?

QPR: 41 points

Last Year:
Newcastle - 46 points, WBA - 39 points

08/09
Wolves - 47 points, Birmingham - 44 points

07/08
WBA - 38 points, Stoke - 34 points

06/07
Sunderland - 30 points, Birmingham - 40 points

05/06
Reading - 50 points, Sheff Utd - 46 points

So of the 10 teams automatically promoted to the Premiership in the last 5 years we've accumulated more points then half and less points then half the teams. The year Sunderland went up they had 11 points fewer then we did at the same stage and the year Reading won the Championship they had 9 points more than we do after 21 matches. I think the fact that we have accumulated more points then anyone else this season after 21 matches and we've not achieved as many as teams like Reading, Wolves, Newcastle shows that this will be another season where no team runs away with this division. IMO the title and the battle between 2nd and 3rd will go down to the last few games of the season.

So after 21 matches how had those team done in terms of wins, losses, goals scored, goals conceded etc?

QPR: P21, W11, D8, L2, F36, A14, GD+22, PTS 41

Last Year:
Newcastle: P21, W14, D4, L3, F35, A12, GD+23
WBA: P21, W11, D6, L4, F43, A21, GD+22

08/09:
Wolves: P21, W15, D2, L4, F45, A27, GD+18
Brum: P21, W13, D5, L3, F31, A19, GD+12

07/08:
WBA: P21, W11, D5, L5, F42, A23, GD+19
Stoke: P21, W9, D7, L5, F30, A24, GD+6

(Watford after 21 matches were actually top with WBA 2nd and Stoke in 5th - Watford: P21, W12, D4, L5, F36, A27, GD+9, PTS38)

06/07:
Sunderland: P21, W8, D6, L7, F28, A27, GD+1 (13th place after 21 matches)
Brum: P21, W12, D4, L5, F32, A21, GD+11

05/06:
Reading: P21, W15, D5, L1, F38, A11, GD+27
Sheff Utd: P21, W14, D4, L3, F42, A21, GD+21

Of the teams who were actually promoted (not Watford) again half had won more matches at this stage and half had won either the same or fewer. Half had scored more than us and half had scored fewer than us. 9 of the 10 sides had lost more games then we have at the same stage.

In the previous 5 seasons there has a couple of teams that have not been either first or second after 21 matches but have still gained promotion but at the same time 2 teams have occupied the top 2 and ended up failing to gain promotion. Watford finished 6th and failed to go up through the play offs and PNE who were 2nd in 06/07 finished the season 7th after having 38 points from their opening 21 matches. We have accumulated more points then both of them at the same stage.

Looking at all of the above I would argue we are in a good position but this season is going to be another close one. If we had lost more, scored less and basically accumulated fewer points something would tell me that historically and statisically we are way behind the 8 ball but we aren't. Of course there is an argument to say that Watford and PNE would have thought they weren't doing too badly either and of course that's right and it's up to NW, the team and even us to make sure that doesn't happen.

I thought I'd finish with a stat so here goes:
After 21 matches last season Andy Carroll had scored just 4 goals he finished the season with 17. Mackie, Helguson and Taraabt have all scored more at the same stage. I'm not arguing that any of them are as good as Carroll or will score as many as Carroll will but this time last year Newcastle fans must have thought that when they signed Leon Best they were finally going to get themselves a goal scorer. Instead Best who was bought in the January transfer window failed to score for Newcastle and between matches 29 and 46 Carroll scored another 13 goals.

[G.T.P]

great stats,, thanks for that.
oh and it puts into perspective about mackie and the people moaning, hes twice the player andy carroll was so far.

[qpr_rich]

What struck me there was that we've drawn the most games.

Draws this season could have easily turned into wins with a sneaky goal here and there from a top striker.

We need a top striker so close games turn in our favour. That's why Reading and Wolves more recently didn't draw many, they had strikers that could always nick a goal out of nothing.

[qblockpete]

cheers for that, always worth a read

[stainrodisalegend]

Many thanks Sir Pie, interesting stats as ever (unlike the work I'm meant to be writing...).

Just a couple of points: what those stats can't show is momentum and the fear is we've lost some of ours (Sunderland for instance were virtually bottom a significant stretch into the season but got the Big Mo with Keane's arrival).

Also while I'm sure you are right about Carol he clearly had the potential to develop into a major goal-scorer. I don't think anyone on our books does. That Newcastle bought a striker who proved something of a disapointment isn't, in my view, a justification for not even trying to find the elusive striker who might power us to promotion.

Anyway, once again many thanks for taking the time to come up with the stats.

[loafer]

great read sirpie...keep up the good work

[maccatwo]

I am happy with that and has put a smile back on my face. Just to add to that the last time we won promotion after 21 games we had won 12 drew 4 lost 4. Record start year after 21 games which we also won promotion we won 14 drew 3 lost 4. The last time we won promotion any kind where we came runner up in 2003/04 after 21 games we won 11 drew 8 lost 2 the same has this season.

[sirpiechucker]

Many thanks Sir Pie, interesting stats as ever (unlike the work I'm meant to be writing...).

Just a couple of points: what those stats can't show is momentum and the fear is we've lost some of ours (Sunderland for instance were virtually bottom a significant stretch into the season but got the Big Mo with Keane's arrival).

Also while I'm sure you are right about Carol he clearly had the potential to develop into a major goal-score. I don't think anyone on our books does. That Newcastle bought a striker who proved something of a disapointment isn't, in my view, a justification for not even trying to find the elusive striker who might power us to promotion.

Anyway, once again many thanks for taking the time to come up with the stats.

Promise you aren't picking on me?

Nile Ranger was the one that Newcastle fans (I know a couple of them) were predicting big things of. Carroll was somewhat a surprise. A bit like if we had given German an extended run ahead of Balanta we'd have all not firstly expected it and secondly would have thought it would have been the other way round. Of course what Best did shouldn't stop us from signing a striker but what we should do is learn from their mistake. Best had proven that he is nothing particularly special at this level and was on a good run by the time the window opened.

As for momentum I think if the losing run we are currently on was three, four or even five games then I'd agree that we might struggle to emulate the past performances of other but just three games ago we beat the team that many on here thought were going to win the league. We smashed Reading with 10 men and strolled past Preston.

[Hertford Hoop]

Fascinating stats

[stainrodisalegend]

Promise you aren't picking on me?

Nile Ranger was the one that Newcastle fans (I know a couple of them) were predicting big things of. Carroll was somewhat a surprise. A bit like if we had given German an extended run ahead of Balanta we'd have all not firstly expected it and secondly would have thought it would have been the other way round. Of course what Best did shouldn't stop us from signing a striker but what we should do is learn from their mistake. Best had proven that he is nothing particularly special at this level and was on a good run by the time the window opened.

As for momentum I think if the losing run we are currently on was three, four or even five games then I'd agree that we might struggle to emulate the past performances of other but just three games ago we beat the team that many on here thought were going to win the league. We smashed Reading with 10 men and strolled past Preston.

Mate, there are one or two on this board who seem to enjoy picking fights but I'm not one of them, and least of all with you...

I think what all these debates on several different threads come down to is whether we really are as good as our league position suggests. There will be those who argue, with considerable justification, that after almost half a season the table does not lie. On the opposite side there will be those who say that the league's best manager propelled, brilliantly, a so-so squad into playing considerablyabove themselves but that now the rest of the league has worked us out.

As ever, and boringly, I sit roughly on the fence in all of this. I believe we have the nucleus of a team that is too good for the Championship but have one very alarming weakness which is a very mediocre front line, and if Rowlands won't be played and Buz is going to be injured then the engine room of midfield is also an issue. And without re-opening the whole left back debate I think we would all agree that at least a bit of competition would be handy. Three or even four judicious additions in January and then potentially we are laughing; but another half a season of waiting for Mackie and Hulse to rip defences to shreds could imho make for some fairly frustrating watching.

[sirpiechucker]

Mate, there are one or two on this board who seem to enjoy picking fights but I'm not one of them, and least of all with you...

I think what all these debates on several different threads come down to is whether we really are as good as our league position suggests. There will be those who argue, with considerable justification, that after almost half a season the table does not lie. On the opposite side there will be those who say that the league's best manager propelled, brilliantly, a so-so squad into playing considerablyabove themselves but that now the rest of the league has worked us out.

As ever, and boringly, I sit roughly on the fence in all of this. I believe we have the nucleus of a team that is too good for the Championship but have one very alarming weakness which is a very mediocre front line, and if Rowlands won't be played and Buz is going to be injured then the engine room of midfield is also an issue. And without re-opening the whole left back debate I think we would all agree that at least a bit of competition would be handy. Three or even four judicious additions in January and then potentially we are laughing; but another half a season of waiting for Mackie and Hulse to rip defences to shreds could imho make for some fairly frustrating watching.

Maybe we have been worked out but maybe the likes of Cardiff, Swansea and Leicester (especially this weekend) have been worked out too? Leeds have found a formula but how long will it be before they get found out as well? I think teams are starting to do their homework on each other and when we were so publically humliated against Watford its as no surprise to hear that Leeds walked through us so easily.

I think it comes down to making one of two choices either a) keep the same personnel but change the system or b) change the personnel but keep the system. The system does work but the personnel are currently knackered and seem to have run out of ideas.

We do need to strengthen but as I said on another thread with first team players. It would be easy to go and sign competition for the likes of Hill, Mackie etc but what we actually need is for those players to become the reserves because the players we've brought in are so much better rather than of a similar level.

[stainrodisalegend]

Maybe we have been worked out but maybe the likes of Cardiff, Swansea and Leicester (especially this weekend) have been worked out too? Leeds have found a formula but how long will it be before they get found out as well? I think teams are starting to do their homework on each other and when we were so publically humliated against Watford its as no surprise to hear that Leeds walked through us so easily.

I think it comes down to making one of two choices either a) keep the same personnel but change the system or b) change the personnel but keep the system. The system does work but the personnel are currently knackered and seem to have run out of ideas.

We do need to strengthen but as I said on another thread with first team players. It would be easy to go and sign competition for the likes of Hill, Mackie etc but what we actually need is for those players to become the reserves because the players we've brought in are so much better rather than of a similar level.

Agree with that. Its not the time for more Leon Clarkes. Its time for real quality. Just hope Bernie agrees.