Trying To Bust A Myth?

[sirpiechucker]

I'll lay my cards firmly on the table and say that I want us to sign a goal scorer. Scrap that I want us to sign 2. But I believe that the NEED for a 20+ goal scorer to win promotion is a myth so here goes:

(All the following stats, although I've written this thread, are out there on the big world wide web)

Below are the teams who won promotion for the previous 4 seasons and the top 5 goal scorers from that season.

2009/10 - Promoted Sides
Newcastle United
West Brom Albion
Blackpool

2009/10 - Highest Goal Scorers
Peter Whittingham - Midfielder - 22 Goals - Cardiff City
Nicky Maynard - Striker - 20 Goals - Bristol City
Gary Hooper - Striker - 19 Goals - Scunny United
Michael Chopra - Striker - 18 Goals - Cardiff City
Charlie Adam - Midfielder - 18 Goals - Blackpool

Note that Blackpool’s highest scorer was a midfielder. There highest scoring striker (DJ Campbell) scored 14 goals which was fewer than midfielders Darren Ambrose, Gyfli Sigurdsson and Kevin Nolan. Newcastle’s highest scorers were Nolan and Andy Carroll neither scored 20 both scored 17. WBA’s highest scorers were both midfielders with Chris Brunt and Graham Dorrans each scoring 13 goals and their highest scoring striker was Roman Bednar (11) who scored fewer Jay Simpson (12) and even Dexter Blackstock (13). The 4 highest scorers last season all played for teams who failed to win promotion. None of the teams promoted had that elusive 20 goal a season striker.


2008/09 - Promoted Sides
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Birmingham City
Burnley

2008/09 - Highest Goal Scorers
Sylvan Ebanks-Blake - Striker - 25 Goals - Wolverhampton Wanderers
Jason Scotland - Striker - 21 Goals - Swansea City
Ross McCormack - Striker - 21 Goals - Cardiff City
Kevin Doyle - Striker - 18 Goals - Reading
Tommy Smith - Striker - 17 Goals - Watford

Neither Burnley nor Birmingham had a striker who scored more than 14 goals in 08/09. Wolves had Ebanks-Blake but the other two promoted sides had Kevin Phillips who scored 14 and Martin Paterson who scored 13.


2007/08 - Promoted Sides
West Brom Albion
Stoke City
Hull City

2007/08 - Highest Goal Scorers
Sylvan Ebanks-Blake - Striker - 24 Goals – Plymouth/Wolverhampton Wanderers
James Beattie - Striker - 22 Goals – Sheffield United
Kevin Phillips - Striker - 22 Goals - West Brom Albion
Stern John - Striker - 20 Goals - Southampton
Kevin Lisbie - Striker - 17 Goals – Colchester United

In 07/08, Stoke’s highest scorer (Fuller and Lawrence) scored just 15 and Hull’s scored 14 (Campbell).


2006/07 - Promoted Sides
Sunderland
Birmingham City
Derby County

2006/07 - Highest Goal Scorers
Jamie Cureton - Striker - 23 Goals – Colchester United
Michael Chopra - Striker - 22 Goals - Cardiff City
Diomansy Kamara - Striker - 21 Goals - West Brom Albion
Robert Earnshaw - Striker - 19 Goals – Norwich City
Kevin Phillips - Striker - 19 Goals - West Brom Albion
Grzegorz Rasiak - Striker - 19 Goals - Southampton

In 06/07, David Connolly was Sunderland’s highest scorer with 13 and Birmingham’s highest scorer was Gary McSheffrey also with 13. Derby County’s highest scorer was Steve Howard with 18.

So of the 12 teams promoted from the last 4 years only 2 of those teams were promoted with the help of a 20 goal a season striker. Last season the 3 teams promoted were the highest scorers in the division but the previous season Birmingham who finished 2nd were only the 12th highest scorers in the league they scored 3 fewer than Norwich who were relegated. In 06/07 Derby finished as only the 10th highest scoring team in the division.

Myth busted? I’ll let you decide.

[bonkerrrrs]

Love reading your posts as they turn everything completely upside down!!!

Great post!

[coneysboots]

It looks a good post, I'll have to set aside a couple of hours to digest it!!

[HoopHappy]

Yeh, it is a myth that you NEED a 20 goal a season player to get promoted. But what is true, is that you need a couple of half decent strikers that will get about 30 between them, we don't have that as of yet, but hopefully will do in the next couple of weeks.

[rangersroar]

It is not just about scoring goals, it is also about having a rock solid defence. That way the need for 100 goals, while being desirable, is not necessary. At the moment we are not rock solid and I do still believe we need to strengthen the centre-back positions.

[80sCasual]

Good post but I think what we are after is a player Capable of scoring 20 goals, whether he gets them or not is another thing, but preferably someone who can fit in and frighten the oppposition with their goalscoring ability and assists, along with the odd shot that doesn't go in.
On the back of this player goals will come anyway from other parts of the field due to players marking the so called dangermen.

[brightonr]

Good post as usual and fully agree with your assessment.

In actual fact, the stats show that Cardiff failed to get promoted with 40 goals from 2 players.

Having said that, it would be nice to have a proper striker for a change though, wouldn't it?

[californiahoop]

I'll lay my cards firmly on the table and say that I want us to sign a goal scorer. Scrap that I want us to sign 2. But I believe that the NEED for a 20+ goal scorer to win promotion is a myth so here goes:

(All the following stats, although I've written this thread, are out there on the big world wide web)

Below are the teams who won promotion for the previous 4 seasons and the top 5 goal scorers from that season.

2009/10 - Promoted Sides
Newcastle United
West Brom Albion
Blackpool

2009/10 - Highest Goal Scorers
Peter Whittingham - Midfielder - 22 Goals - Cardiff City
Nicky Maynard - Striker - 20 Goals - Bristol City
Gary Hooper - Striker - 19 Goals - Scunny United
Michael Chopra - Striker - 18 Goals - Cardiff City
Charlie Adam - Midfielder - 18 Goals - Blackpool

Note that Blackpool’s highest scorer was a midfielder. There highest scoring striker (DJ Campbell) scored 14 goals which was fewer than midfielders Darren Ambrose, Gyfli Sigurdsson and Kevin Nolan. Newcastle’s highest scorers were Nolan and Andy Carroll neither scored 20 both scored 17. WBA’s highest scorers were both midfielders with Chris Brunt and Graham Dorrans each scoring 13 goals and their highest scoring striker was Roman Bednar (11) who scored fewer Jay Simpson (12) and even Dexter Blackstock (13). The 4 highest scorers last season all played for teams who failed to win promotion. None of the teams promoted had that elusive 20 goal a season striker.


2008/09 - Promoted Sides
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Birmingham City
Burnley

2008/09 - Highest Goal Scorers
Sylvan Ebanks-Blake - Striker - 25 Goals - Wolverhampton Wanderers
Jason Scotland - Striker - 21 Goals - Swansea City
Ross McCormack - Striker - 21 Goals - Cardiff City
Kevin Doyle - Striker - 18 Goals - Reading
Tommy Smith - Striker - 17 Goals - Watford

Neither Burnley nor Birmingham had a striker who scored more than 14 goals in 08/09. Wolves had Ebanks-Blake but the other two promoted sides had Kevin Phillips who scored 14 and Martin Paterson who scored 13.


2007/08 - Promoted Sides
West Brom Albion
Stoke City
Hull City

2007/08 - Highest Goal Scorers
Sylvan Ebanks-Blake - Striker - 24 Goals – Plymouth/Wolverhampton Wanderers
James Beattie - Striker - 22 Goals – Sheffield United
Kevin Phillips - Striker - 22 Goals - West Brom Albion
Stern John - Striker - 20 Goals - Southampton
Kevin Lisbie - Striker - 17 Goals – Colchester United

In 07/08, Stoke’s highest scorer (Fuller and Lawrence) scored just 15 and Hull’s scored 14 (Campbell).


2006/07 - Promoted Sides
Sunderland
Birmingham City
Derby County

2006/07 - Highest Goal Scorers
Jamie Cureton - Striker - 23 Goals – Colchester United
Michael Chopra - Striker - 22 Goals - Cardiff City
Diomansy Kamara - Striker - 21 Goals - West Brom Albion
Robert Earnshaw - Striker - 19 Goals – Norwich City
Kevin Phillips - Striker - 19 Goals - West Brom Albion
Grzegorz Rasiak - Striker - 19 Goals - Southampton

In 06/07, David Connolly was Sunderland’s highest scorer with 13 and Birmingham’s highest scorer was Gary McSheffrey also with 13. Derby County’s highest scorer was Steve Howard with 18.

So of the 12 teams promoted from the last 4 years only 2 of those teams were promoted with the help of a 20 goal a season striker. Last season the 3 teams promoted were the highest scorers in the division but the previous season Birmingham who finished 2nd were only the 12th highest scorers in the league they scored 3 fewer than Norwich who were relegated. In 06/07 Derby finished as only the 10th highest scoring team in the division.

Myth busted? I’ll let you decide.

Top post, it's about the team which Mr Warnock is trying to do, if a top boy comes along I am sure he will nab him

[Kirill]

Thanks for taking the time to do this insightful research for us all, Sirpiechucker!

[sirpiechucker]

Thanks for the positive comments. Unfortunately because this post isn't about Adel Taraabt it hardly gets looked at. Maybe I should change the title of the thread to update of Adel???

[stanley75]

Yes, that does what you set out to do - it proves the iconic 20 goal striker doesn't get you promoted (though who would not want one!). It also shows (or at least suggests) that you need two hitting more than 15. Those are very attack minded midfielders at that strike rate. Got me wondering if we have them. In Buz potentially yes. Not sure where the other 15 might come from. Faurlin, no, Mackie, no, Cook, no, Derry, no, clarke, no. So I remain worried!

You could argue that these data might instead show that the teams with bigger squads go up (perhaps as they can rotate more that might account for the greater spread of goals from those that go up as opposed to those with the top scorers who don't),. Though instinctively I don;t think that';s true. Certainly not true of Burnley and I don't recall Carroll and Nolan getting left out often.

Fascinating post.

[sirpiechucker]

Yes, that does what you set out to do - it proves the iconic 20 goal striker doesn't get you promoted (though who would not want one!). It also shows (or at least suggests) that you need two hitting more than 15. Those are very attack minded midfielders at that strike rate. Got me wondering if we have them. In Buz potentially yes. Not sure where the other 15 might come from. Faurlin, no, Mackie, no, Cook, no, Derry, no, clarke, no. So I remain worried!

You could argue that these data might instead show that the teams with bigger squads go up (perhaps as they can rotate more that might account for the greater spread of goals from those that go up as opposed to those with the top scorers who don't),. Though instinctively I don;t think that';s true. Certainly not true of Burnley and I don't recall Carroll and Nolan getting left out often.

Fascinating post.

That's a very good point you make about players because of course the teams still went up without the individuals scoring 20+ but there are obviously times where a player through injury or suspension just doesn't play enough to score 20.

46 League Matches multiplied by 90 minutes per match = 4140 mins
Andy Carroll played 2861 minutes or 69%
Kevin Nolan played 3833 or 92.5%

If Carroll had played the same amount of minutes and kept his minute per goals ratio he would have scored 23 rather than 17. I’ll look into the spread of goals throughout a team and write a thread later.

[stanley75]

Blim.ey. Hats off mate. Your good at this aren't you!

[W12_Ranger]

I'll lay my cards firmly on the table and say that I want us to sign a goal scorer. Scrap that I want us to sign 2. But I believe that the NEED for a 20+ goal scorer to win promotion is a myth so here goes:

(All the following stats, although I've written this thread, are out there on the big world wide web)

Below are the teams who won promotion for the previous 4 seasons and the top 5 goal scorers from that season.

2009/10 - Promoted Sides
Newcastle United
West Brom Albion
Blackpool

2009/10 - Highest Goal Scorers
Peter Whittingham - Midfielder - 22 Goals - Cardiff City
Nicky Maynard - Striker - 20 Goals - Bristol City
Gary Hooper - Striker - 19 Goals - Scunny United
Michael Chopra - Striker - 18 Goals - Cardiff City
Charlie Adam - Midfielder - 18 Goals - Blackpool

Note that Blackpool’s highest scorer was a midfielder. There highest scoring striker (DJ Campbell) scored 14 goals which was fewer than midfielders Darren Ambrose, Gyfli Sigurdsson and Kevin Nolan. Newcastle’s highest scorers were Nolan and Andy Carroll neither scored 20 both scored 17. WBA’s highest scorers were both midfielders with Chris Brunt and Graham Dorrans each scoring 13 goals and their highest scoring striker was Roman Bednar (11) who scored fewer Jay Simpson (12) and even Dexter Blackstock (13). The 4 highest scorers last season all played for teams who failed to win promotion. None of the teams promoted had that elusive 20 goal a season striker.


2008/09 - Promoted Sides
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Birmingham City
Burnley

2008/09 - Highest Goal Scorers
Sylvan Ebanks-Blake - Striker - 25 Goals - Wolverhampton Wanderers
Jason Scotland - Striker - 21 Goals - Swansea City
Ross McCormack - Striker - 21 Goals - Cardiff City
Kevin Doyle - Striker - 18 Goals - Reading
Tommy Smith - Striker - 17 Goals - Watford

Neither Burnley nor Birmingham had a striker who scored more than 14 goals in 08/09. Wolves had Ebanks-Blake but the other two promoted sides had Kevin Phillips who scored 14 and Martin Paterson who scored 13.


2007/08 - Promoted Sides
West Brom Albion
Stoke City
Hull City

2007/08 - Highest Goal Scorers
Sylvan Ebanks-Blake - Striker - 24 Goals – Plymouth/Wolverhampton Wanderers
James Beattie - Striker - 22 Goals – Sheffield United
Kevin Phillips - Striker - 22 Goals - West Brom Albion
Stern John - Striker - 20 Goals - Southampton
Kevin Lisbie - Striker - 17 Goals – Colchester United

In 07/08, Stoke’s highest scorer (Fuller and Lawrence) scored just 15 and Hull’s scored 14 (Campbell).


2006/07 - Promoted Sides
Sunderland
Birmingham City
Derby County

2006/07 - Highest Goal Scorers
Jamie Cureton - Striker - 23 Goals – Colchester United
Michael Chopra - Striker - 22 Goals - Cardiff City
Diomansy Kamara - Striker - 21 Goals - West Brom Albion
Robert Earnshaw - Striker - 19 Goals – Norwich City
Kevin Phillips - Striker - 19 Goals - West Brom Albion
Grzegorz Rasiak - Striker - 19 Goals - Southampton

In 06/07, David Connolly was Sunderland’s highest scorer with 13 and Birmingham’s highest scorer was Gary McSheffrey also with 13. Derby County’s highest scorer was Steve Howard with 18.

So of the 12 teams promoted from the last 4 years only 2 of those teams were promoted with the help of a 20 goal a season striker. Last season the 3 teams promoted were the highest scorers in the division but the previous season Birmingham who finished 2nd were only the 12th highest scorers in the league they scored 3 fewer than Norwich who were relegated. In 06/07 Derby finished as only the 10th highest scoring team in the division.

Myth busted? I’ll let you decide.

A well constructed thread SPC have to say you do make some valid points. I think one of the focuses for a lot of QPR fans is that successful QPR sides through the years have had a 20 goal a season man. I do see your point and my argument would be I'd sooner than have a 20 goal a season striker than trying to achieve promotion without one. If there is 2 things we love at QPR as fans is a skillful attacking midfielder who entertain's and an out and out goalscorer and I don't think most off us will be happy until we have both.