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Can't believe I'm writing this thread as this season should have been about promotion and not survival. If you look at my blog you'll see a "Points Per Game" entry detailing what it takes to finish in the top six but this thread is about what is required to stay up.
Below are the points finishes of the 22nd place team from the previous 10 seasons. 22nd-24th are relegated but as we only need to have a single goal better than the 22nd place team it is a better indication that the 21st place team as to what points we actually need.
22nd Place
08/09 - 46 points
07/08 - 52 points
06/07 - 42 points
05/06 - 42 points
04/05 - 50 points
03/04 - 51 points
02/03 - 46 points
01/02 - 49 points
00/01 - 48 points
99/00 - 46 points
As you can see they range from as low as 42 points to as high as 52 points with the average being 47. The average is slightly dissorted by the range because although 47 points will have actually been enough to survive on 5 of the 10 occassions it will have also been a too small amount to have come anywhere near safety on 5 (50%) of the other occassions.
Therefore the real figure we need to aim for is the highest figure on that list, which is 52 points. Other than Crystal Palace we have a superior goal difference to all the other sides round us at the bottom so if we do finish level on points chances are that our goal difference should help us. 52 points as you can see has only relegated 1 team (Leicester City) in the previous 10 years (Millwall also went down with 52 points in 1996). With 15 games to go and only 15 points required to achieve the 52 point mark we only need a point a match. To date even with our recent slump we've been achieving 1.19 points per match. At this rate we will finish on 54 points which was good enough to finish 17th last season.
Since the introduction of 3 points for a win no team has been relegated from the 2nd tier of English football with a points tally of 53 points or more. Thus meaning that unless some remarkable turn of events happen Swansea City yesterday achieved survival with their 1-0 win over Derby. As one of the favourites to go down at the start of the season this is quite an amazing achievement with so many matches to go. Remind me who is their manager?
Below are the points finishes of the 22nd place team from the previous 10 seasons. 22nd-24th are relegated but as we only need to have a single goal better than the 22nd place team it is a better indication that the 21st place team as to what points we actually need.
22nd Place
08/09 - 46 points
07/08 - 52 points
06/07 - 42 points
05/06 - 42 points
04/05 - 50 points
03/04 - 51 points
02/03 - 46 points
01/02 - 49 points
00/01 - 48 points
99/00 - 46 points
As you can see they range from as low as 42 points to as high as 52 points with the average being 47. The average is slightly dissorted by the range because although 47 points will have actually been enough to survive on 5 of the 10 occassions it will have also been a too small amount to have come anywhere near safety on 5 (50%) of the other occassions.
Therefore the real figure we need to aim for is the highest figure on that list, which is 52 points. Other than Crystal Palace we have a superior goal difference to all the other sides round us at the bottom so if we do finish level on points chances are that our goal difference should help us. 52 points as you can see has only relegated 1 team (Leicester City) in the previous 10 years (Millwall also went down with 52 points in 1996). With 15 games to go and only 15 points required to achieve the 52 point mark we only need a point a match. To date even with our recent slump we've been achieving 1.19 points per match. At this rate we will finish on 54 points which was good enough to finish 17th last season.
Since the introduction of 3 points for a win no team has been relegated from the 2nd tier of English football with a points tally of 53 points or more. Thus meaning that unless some remarkable turn of events happen Swansea City yesterday achieved survival with their 1-0 win over Derby. As one of the favourites to go down at the start of the season this is quite an amazing achievement with so many matches to go. Remind me who is their manager?
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