Extrapolating Current Form of Bottom Eleven Clubs

[Abseits]

I decided to look at the current form of teams in scope for the drop. I thought that I'd be looking at 7 or 8 clubs but I noticed Bristol City currently in 14th are in a real slump. I therefore looked at the current bottom eleven clubs, converted their current form over past 6 in to a points-per-game average and then applied that ave P.P.G. to their remaining fixtures to arrive at their final points tally after 46 games.

The final table would be:

14th: Plymouth...........61pts
15th: Millwall..............52pts
16th: QPR......................49pts
17th: Huddersfield.....47pts
18th: Swansea..............46pts
19th: Birmingham......46pts
20th: Bristol C.............46pts
21st: Stoke.....................45pts

22nd: Wednesday.......41pts
23rd: Blackburn...........41pts
24th: Rotherham.........36pts

The above is mathematically and statistically sound today but performing the same analysis after each game week is done would shuffle things significantly but any of the above clubs that goes 3 games without a win will find themselves getting rather twitchy - Blackburn Rovers and Bristol City need to arrest their slides pronto.

[shaggy24]

I fancy Millwall and Stoke to struggle to survive

Just think we did enough in window at the right end of the pitch

[topperharley]

What did these teams do in the Jan window?

Seems Blackburn boss is on the way out, who is in for HUdders job? Could have just as much effect on proceedings as our window.

I like this though, makes sense and very possible.

[LoftusRoadLad]

What did these teams do in the Jan window?

Seems Blackburn boss is on the way out, who is in for HUdders job? Could have just as much effect on proceedings as our window.

I like this though, makes sense and very possible.

John Eustace is Burns boss. They played quite well last night against the toons. Eustace has had 5 games so far WLDDD the loss against Brum !!

[Abseits]

I've been busy revisiting the maths....

I decided to use the current form of past 10 games instead of last 6. I think 10 gives a more balanced trajectory, plus for all the teams aside from Brum, there are 10 games to go so it's a case of if teams do what they've done over past 10 games in the remaining 10 games, they'll tot up points as below....

I did bottom 12 this time cos Watford are tumbling down the league at quite a pace!

13th: QPR....................57pts
14th: Swansea.......... 54pts
15th: Sheff Wed....... 54pts
16th: Watford....,,,,,.. 53pts
17th: Bristol C...,,,,,... 52pts
18th: Plymouth.........51pts
19th: Birmingham... 51pts
20th: Huddersfield..51pts
21st: Blackburn........ 48pts
-----------------------
22nd: Millwall.......... 48pts
23rd: Stoke................ 47pts
24th Rotherham..... 20pts

This would suggest that 50pts is enough to stay up but it's so tight down there, teams at/around 50pts going into last game or two will probably still be sweating and NOT mathematically safe.

FOUR wins plus a couple of draws for us would probably see us safe.

[QPRFCJIM]

It looks better with stoke relegated.

[SheepRanger]

Huddersfield lost 1-4

[FurtiveFox]

WBA owed us that after last week!

Crazy division though. We shouldn't be surprised by winning away at Leicester one week then convincingly beaten at home by Boro the next. Anything can happen any given week. No idea how it will all pan out.

[SheepRanger]

Sunderland have lost their last six games!!

[Sleeping Giants]

Sunderland have lost their last six games!!

The last 3 were tough fixtures though to be fair, Norwich, Leicester and Southampton.

[Abseits]

Sunderland have lost their last six games!!

They have priceless points in the bag though, just one win and a draw or two will see them safe. Plus, there's a certain team I know that's incredibly obliging if you're on a run of defeats or your striker hasn't scored for weeks, this team generally roll out the red carpet for you and invite you to fill yer boots and get that monkey off your back. Lucky for Sunderland THAT team is next up for them!

[Sleeping Giants]

Birmingham lost tonight so still below us.

[topperharley]

Brum are struggling, i can see them being the last team to go down at this rate.

Next 5 games for us are massive (every games is) but there is Brum, Weds, Argyle and Swansea, all within our reach and in some form of danger. Then there is Sunderland next who can't buy a point at the minute.

Who knows how we'll do but this is our 'easiest' run on paper, 4 trickier games after that but that doesn't matter to us we're just as likely to lose the next five and wine the last four.

Weds would feel hard done by after winning 4 on the bounce and still being down there. Something tells me they'll be ok. Could be Brum and Hudders for the drop based on last 5 games.

Man this is so close, it's absolutely a case of don't lose and luck is absolutely going to play a part, I don't think any team is going to do enough by themselves to avoid the drop, it's going to be about what everyone else does. All the club can do is focus on each game at a time but the reality is it's going to take some luck with other results.