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Some fans seem to think a top six finish is beyond reach.
Well, I am a half glass ful kind of supporter and I like to think the chances are better than we keep getting told. Most betting companies offer bets between 20/1 and 25/1 indicating the chance is 4-5%. which is admittedly very slim. But the joy of supporting your team is obviously the hope that we always carry with us, and I think the chance is better than the odds justify.
If you rank the teams we are facing in the remaining nine matches according their present league table position only Millwall has an easier fixture list than us. We are facing 5 of the 6 bottom clubs: Barsnley, Charlton, Middlesbrough, Wigan and Luton. I know teams near the bottom can be tough to deal with when they smell relegation, but there is a reason why these clubs are where they are. I consider all these five matches very winnable. Recently we have done well against teams below us, even though there are exeptions of course (yes, we remember Barnsley that put five behind us)
The four others matches are against Sheff W, Fulham, Millwall and WBA. I hope WBA have secured direct promotion when we face them in the very last match of the season, with their league position already decided (second behind Leeds?). Hopefully they have little to play for. We face Millwall in the penultimate match and if we are lucky they won't have anything to play for, having missed out on play-off.
I see a lot of computers trying to estimate how the season will pan out. All of the algorithms conclude that the team finishing sixth will need 68 points. We have 50 points, so we need another 18, or rather another 19 as our goal difference is so poor, provided others clubs also end on 68. We might need more or less, but I think 69 is a good estimate right now.
To get to 19 points over the remaining nine matches we need six wins and a draw, alternatively 5 wins and four draws. 6-1-2 is not completely impossible, knowing we face five of the bottom clubs. If we win these five matches, which is surely not a walk in the park, we need just four points from the four other matches.
During the first nine matches of the season we had the series 5-2-2. We need to marginally better this by turning one draw into a win - then we are there.
I like to think the chances are 10% at least, if not closer to 20%. But please feel free to kill an optimist.
Well, I am a half glass ful kind of supporter and I like to think the chances are better than we keep getting told. Most betting companies offer bets between 20/1 and 25/1 indicating the chance is 4-5%. which is admittedly very slim. But the joy of supporting your team is obviously the hope that we always carry with us, and I think the chance is better than the odds justify.
If you rank the teams we are facing in the remaining nine matches according their present league table position only Millwall has an easier fixture list than us. We are facing 5 of the 6 bottom clubs: Barsnley, Charlton, Middlesbrough, Wigan and Luton. I know teams near the bottom can be tough to deal with when they smell relegation, but there is a reason why these clubs are where they are. I consider all these five matches very winnable. Recently we have done well against teams below us, even though there are exeptions of course (yes, we remember Barnsley that put five behind us)
The four others matches are against Sheff W, Fulham, Millwall and WBA. I hope WBA have secured direct promotion when we face them in the very last match of the season, with their league position already decided (second behind Leeds?). Hopefully they have little to play for. We face Millwall in the penultimate match and if we are lucky they won't have anything to play for, having missed out on play-off.
I see a lot of computers trying to estimate how the season will pan out. All of the algorithms conclude that the team finishing sixth will need 68 points. We have 50 points, so we need another 18, or rather another 19 as our goal difference is so poor, provided others clubs also end on 68. We might need more or less, but I think 69 is a good estimate right now.
To get to 19 points over the remaining nine matches we need six wins and a draw, alternatively 5 wins and four draws. 6-1-2 is not completely impossible, knowing we face five of the bottom clubs. If we win these five matches, which is surely not a walk in the park, we need just four points from the four other matches.
During the first nine matches of the season we had the series 5-2-2. We need to marginally better this by turning one draw into a win - then we are there.
I like to think the chances are 10% at least, if not closer to 20%. But please feel free to kill an optimist.
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