Nas, Newcastle are top because they are consistenly winning games and have peaked over the last 10 games or so and more than likely peak for another 20 odd games.
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Newcastle have been an exception the last couple of times they've been in the champ because each time they've generally been a class above it, but look at the teams in the play offs. Wednesday won more than 2 games in a row only 3 times that season, the first being week 8-10; second being 25-27 and third being 37-40. They had pretty bad runs such as going winless between 18-21, 32-36, and winning one match between 41-46. Not exactly consistency shown by a play off side. Derby too last season started the season terribly for a side like theirs, not winning in 5 matches, then going and losing only one game between week 6 and 24, only to then not win from week 24 to 31 before getting back their form at the right time and winning 4 in a row from 40-43, carrying them into the play offs.
Ipswich 2 years ago made the play offs on the back of a fantastic september, november and december where they won 12 in 15 and drew the other three, but the rest of the season, their form was pretty average and at times poor. Same goes for Brentford that year, who spent most of the season forgetting how to draw but winning 5 in 5 in november and 3 in 4 in january to carry them into the play offs. The rest of the season was so 50/50. Even Watford who went up by automatics that year were so inconsistent, winning 3 in 12 between weeks 8 and 19 but then going on runs of winning 3 games and then losing for a while from december onwards to carry them into autos.
The year we went up by play offs, Brighton got into the play offs despite winning 3 of their first 13 games and winning 4 of their last 11. If you put those numbers up here and said that we did that, I'd guarantee you fans here would be off their head talking about how poor the team is and how we're midtable at best. Brighton that year only won more than two matches in a row once. Wigan that year only won 8 of their first 22 but peaked in february where they went and won 7 in 8 matches.
So my point is that if you want to win the league you have to be picking up wins extremely regularly. But if you want a play off spot, it's about timing your runs, getting points against the right teams and making sure your rivals drop points at the right time.
By consistency, we're talking about going 20-25 games where we win most of them, but in reality, that's very unlikely to happen at this level. You're gonna have around 3 clear variations in form within those 20 games, hence why everything is so packed in the middle."What stats allow you to do is not take things at face value. The idea that I trust my eyes more than the stats, I just don't buy that because I've seen magicians pull rabbits out of hats and I know I just know that rabbit's not in there." - Billy Beane
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Yes they do posess quality right through their squad and are a league above but they also have an experienced and very successful manager who knows his best team and the formation he wants to play and make no mistake a manager who knows what he wants and how he wants it is worth 10- 15 points a season.
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Originally posted by 1973 ranger View PostYes they do posess quality right through their squad and are a league above but they also have an experienced and very successful manager who knows his best team and the formation he wants to play and make no mistake a manager who knows what he wants and how he wants it is worth 10- 15 points a season."What stats allow you to do is not take things at face value. The idea that I trust my eyes more than the stats, I just don't buy that because I've seen magicians pull rabbits out of hats and I know I just know that rabbit's not in there." - Billy Beane
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Originally posted by nasser95 View PostWell obviously it's easy when you can afford arguably one of the best managers in world football. We're taking time to develop a manager and a set of players.
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Originally posted by James1979 View PostWhy should we develop a manager? Are we an academy for managers? If he had championship experience or even 2 years or more league 1 experience, I'd agree. We've taken a risky punt."What stats allow you to do is not take things at face value. The idea that I trust my eyes more than the stats, I just don't buy that because I've seen magicians pull rabbits out of hats and I know I just know that rabbit's not in there." - Billy Beane
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Originally posted by nasser95 View PostBecause long term, his value to us could be huge. It's the same reason you'd develop a player, because long term they have value to you. JFH could become incredible, he could become dogsh it just like any young player could. We're taking a risk but if it pays off, you have a manager who has a link to the club and who wants to be here and who has a link to the players he brings in and can make us a much better side as a result.
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Originally posted by James1979 View PostDifferent to players. We need someone who has experience not only of the championship but also building a squad, bringing in youth etc. we needed experience and still do. If a player is crap you can drop him after a few games. You can't do that with your manager
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Originally posted by 1973 ranger View PostNever realised after 250 million quid being spunked that we had now become a club for developing managers? Surely the powers that be want to be back in the PL asap?
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Originally posted by CroydonCaptainJack View PostWe shouldn't be too depressed about this result in the same way as we shouldn't have been too excited about our midweek win. Typical championship this season.
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