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Consensus seems to be it is Derby as they finished on more points. But of games when Charlie Austin has been fit, my hunch is we have actually got a higher points average per game than they have. Is this true? Its one of those moments when we need our old stato back, Sir Pie Chucker. I guess it doesn't matter too much and tbh if the bookies and the pundits want to make Derby favourites, all the better as it takes the pressure off us. Except to boost our own confidence it would underline what a different team we are with Austin in it - which bar some disaster he will be at Wembley.
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Derby favs, ...i prefer us to be underdogs -
More than happy being underestimated.Comment
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They are favourites they are the media love child right now - they get through and everyone seems to be singing it from the mountains thats its desitny - we get through and I see the papers are mugging our spending off again and daily fail are talking about our aparrent 62 million pound fine more than manc citys apparently....bloddy joke but dont care cause we will do itComment
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Charlie austin has started 28 matches this season in the league (not including the play offs) and we have an average of 2.18 points per game with him in the starting line up, scoring a total of 1.5 goals per game. If he played every match and assuming the same ppg, we would have a total of 100 points and 69 goals scored. From that, i think it is safe to say that even with a correction factor, we would probably still have had more points than Derby. Without him in the starting line up, we have a points per game ratio of 1.11 and a goals per game ratio of 1 goal per game. If we went by that, we ended up with a points total of 51 placing us 17th in the league with a total goals scored of 46."What stats allow you to do is not take things at face value. The idea that I trust my eyes more than the stats, I just don't buy that because I've seen magicians pull rabbits out of hats and I know I just know that rabbit's not in there." - Billy Beane
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Blimey, that is an amazing stat Nasser, thank you. Shows that we are almost as dependent on Charlie now as we were on Adel when we went up last time. Also by that stat (whisper it because like others I am v happy to be regarded as underdogs) I would actually lump quite a bit of dosh on us because with Charlie back in the team and back in form we must be in with a good chance. I know you could argue that we are still without Philips and Faurlin who also made a decent contribution to our early start but as you say the points average still suggests that Charlie is pivotal. Frightening to think we would be 17th without him - the term "one man team" is over-used but maybe in our case there is a little bit of truth in it.Originally posted by nasser95 View PostComment
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Derby 4/5 to be promoted, we're evens.You should never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.Comment
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Faurlin only started 7 matches to be fair but in matches with phillips and austin playing together, we managed 1.91 points per game which would total to 87 points over the season. The strange part is that when they both started, we only scored 0.667 goals per game which is even less than matches without charlieOriginally posted by stainrodisalegend View Post"What stats allow you to do is not take things at face value. The idea that I trust my eyes more than the stats, I just don't buy that because I've seen magicians pull rabbits out of hats and I know I just know that rabbit's not in there." - Billy Beane
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That's weird. So more through (bad) luck than judgement, we will now be fielding the players who have secured the best results this season of any club in the league. Oh but wait, Derby know they have already won promotion...Originally posted by nasser95 View PostComment
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Derby, they've finished above us, their fans think they'll walk all over us. Don't think we'll sell our allocation, run us, we are arrogant, everything they hate about football. Rise up my fellow hoopsI must away now, I can no longer tarry
This morning's tempest I have to cross
I must be guided without a stumble
Into the arms I love the mostComment
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Derby are favourites because the McClaren factor is bigger than the Charlie factor.
* Look at our record before and after McClaren - I think you'll see there is a big difference, with or without Charlie.
* Now look at their record before and after McClaren - again, a huge difference as I'm sure they were mid-table when he arrived.
But it is only one game and anything can happen!'Only a Ranger!' cried Gandalf. 'My dear Frodo, that is just what the Rangers are: the last remnant in the South of the great people, the Men of West London.' - Lord of the Rings, Book II, Chapter I - Many Meetings.Comment
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the last stat i will give you is a defensive one, when dunne and hill have started together in cb, we have a ppg of 1.64 and a goals conceded per game ratio of 1 goal per game which would give us a total points haul of 75. When Dunne and onuoha have started together at cb, we have a ppg of 1.8125 and a goals conceded per game ratio of 0.875 goals per game giving us a points total of 83 points which is slightly better than what we had already. Just proves the obvious that onuoha has to start"What stats allow you to do is not take things at face value. The idea that I trust my eyes more than the stats, I just don't buy that because I've seen magicians pull rabbits out of hats and I know I just know that rabbit's not in there." - Billy Beane
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