Over the past 10 seasons the average points per game needed to finish in the top 6 is 1.608 (which equates to 74 points over a 46 match season) Below are two columns the left being the number of matches times by 1.608 and the left column is the points that Preston had accumulated on a match per match basis last season when they finished 6th.

As you'll see that we should be on 18 after 11 games and currently we are on 17 but after 12 matches we should be on only 19 so a win tonight and we are ahead. Preston were also on 17 after 11 matches and they were still on 17 after 13 matches. In fact they only won 3 points from the next five matches so anything more than 3 points against Reading, Derby, Leicester, Palace and Wednesday will mean that we will be ahead of Preston at the same stage.

11 matches = 18 points ---- Preston 11 matches = 17 points
12 matches = 19 points ---- Preston 12 matches = 17 points
13 matches = 21 points ---- Preston 13 matches = 17 points
14 matches = 23 points ---- Preston 14 matches = 20 points
15 matches = 24 points ---- Preston 15 matches = 20 points
16 matches = 26 points ---- Preston 16 matches = 21 points
17 matches = 27 points ---- Preston 17 matches = 24 points
18 matches = 29 points ---- Preston 18 matches = 27 points
19 matches = 31 points ---- Preston 19 matches = 28 points
20 matches = 32 points ---- Preston 20 matches = 31 points
21 matches = 34 points ---- Preston 21 matches = 31 points
22 matches = 35 points ---- Preston 22 matches = 34 points
23 matches = 37 points ---- Preston 23 matches = 37 points
24 matches = 39 points ---- Preston 24 matches = 37 points
25 matches = 40 points ---- Preston 25 matches = 40 points
26 matches = 42 points ---- Preston 26 matches = 41 points
27 matches = 43 points ---- Preston 27 matches = 44 points
28 matches = 45 points ---- Preston 28 matches = 47 points
29 matches = 47 points ---- Preston 29 matches = 47 points
30 matches = 48 points ---- Preston 30 matches = 48 points
31 matches = 50 points ---- Preston 31 matches = 49 points
32 matches = 51 points ---- Preston 32 matches = 50 points
33 matches = 53 points ---- Preston 33 matches = 53 points
34 matches = 55 points ---- Preston 34 matches = 53 points
35 matches = 56 points ---- Preston 35 matches = 56 points
36 matches = 58 points ---- Preston 36 matches = 56 points
37 matches = 59 points ---- Preston 37 matches = 56 points
38 matches = 61 points ---- Preston 38 matches = 57 points
39 matches = 63 points ---- Preston 39 matches = 60 points
40 matches = 64 points ---- Preston 40 matches = 61 points
41 matches = 66 points ---- Preston 41 matches = 62 points
42 matches = 68 points ---- Preston 42 matches = 62 points
43 matches = 69 points ---- Preston 43 matches = 65 points
44 matches = 71 points ---- Preston 44 matches = 68 points
45 matches = 72 points ---- Preston 45 matches = 71 points
46 matches = 74 points ---- Preston 46 matches = 74 points

After 11 matches last season:
Burnley = 16 points (19 points after 12 matches)
Sheffield United = 17 points (18 points after 12 matches)
Preston = 17 points (17 points after 12 matches)
Reading = 20 points (23 points after 12 matches)
Birmingham = 24 points (27 points after 12 matches)
Wolves = 25 points (25 points after 12 matches)

Hull in 07/08 had only 12 points after 11 matches and finished with 75 points whereas Watford were on 26 points after 11 matches and finished with 5 points fewer than Hull. As for the year that Sunderland won the Championship (06/07) they lost their opening four matches, had just 13 points after 11 matches and went on to win the league finishing 13 points ahead of 6th place.