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Today’s bets:
1.45 - York:
Coin Of The Realm - 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1 (General)
Presbyterian Nun - 1 pt e/w. Available at 28/1 (Coral and William Hill)
Another tricky York opener but one in which Class is Class is likely to prove popular. However he doesn't appeal at his current price with three year olds not having a particularly good record in the race and being a relatively inexperienced horse yet to run over today's trip. It looks highly likely to suit, but he did come under pressure a long way from home at Newmarket last time out and he may not find some of these coming back to him. He did get within two lengths of two very progressive performers in that race though and, on that basis, looks the one to beat. Coin Of The Realm did us a favour at Epsom last time out and has improved every time he has run over twelve furlongs. He has been seen at his best around tracks like Epsom, Lingfield, Chester and Windsor so far and on ground good or softer. However his Dam is related to, and has produced, fast ground winners and Coin Of The Realm doesn't have the action of a horse who needs easier ground as a prerequisite. He is up in grade and five pounds in the weights but he has the profile of a horse still progressing. There appears plenty of pace in the race and that will suit a horse who can sometimes race a bit keenly. The yard are going through a frustrating spell but both they and the jockey turn up with just the one representative at the track today. Presbyterian Nun is a bit more speculative but she has been highly tried in a 13 race career and the drop back to 12 furlongs on fast ground could bring the best out in her. Both her previous efforts over this trip in Listed races this time last season read well in the context of this race and, if she can repeat that level of performance, a mark of 86 could be on the generous side.
3.25 - York:
Precision Break - 2 pts win. Available at 10/1 (General)
Magicalmysterytour - 1 pt e/w. Available at 25/1 (General)
Although he doesn't look thrown in here off a mark of 107, Changingtheguard represents a Trainer who gets it right far more often than he gets it wrong. However 11/4 in a race like the Ebor makes very little appeal. Creeping in at the bottom of the weights Precision Break has won four of his five races beyond 12 furlongs and has improved in each one of them. His best performance came in defeat last time out at Goodwood and he has the chance to reverse the placings with the winner at today's weights. That was only his second start of the season and the assessor has left his mark unchanged, which is generous considering the winner was put up four pounds for beating the selection by a head. Precision Break does come with his negatives. He has yet to win on turf on ground faster than G/S and the yard have been finding winners hard to come by. On a positive note they have had quite a few make the frame and the booking of a top jockey who won the only other time he has been booked by the stable in recent seasons takes the eye. Magicalmysterytour has improved with each outing this season and went down narrowly over today's C/D in a Listed handicap last time out. He meets the two that finished just in front of him on the same terms but the very short distance he was beaten makes him look a bit of value at around 25/1. That race was his first attempt at 14 furlongs and his running style is well suited to today's jockey.
3.50 - Carlisle:
Northern Bolt - 2 pts win. Available at 7/1 (Betfred)
Hazelrigg - 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 28/1 (Bet365)
4.40 - York - Shamwari Lodge - 3 pts win. Available at 10/3 (William Hill) 1st 3/1 - opened at 4/1
Godolphin's Burgundy Ice is likely to prove popular given their recent form but Shamwari Lodge has produced both her best performances in a six race career over seven furlongs and she looks worth a try over a mile. The form pf those seven furlong races, in which she finished runner up on each occasion, looks very solid and the manner with which she finished suggests she could progress further over today's trip. She has proven her effectiveness on ground on both the fast and slow side of good and the plethora of horses present who like to lead or be ridden prominently could set this race up for a closer like Shamwari Lodge. Back against her own sex for the first time this season she still looks well weighted on a mark of 95.
4.25 - Carlisle - Blades Princess - 2 pts win. Available at 8/1 (General)
Blades Princess was a progressive Juvenile last season before biting off more than she could chew on her final start in the Group Three Cornwallis Stakes at Ascot in October. She didn't beat a horse home in her first two races this season but there was much more encouragement at Thirsk last time out where, despite finishing 6/9, she got within three lengths of the winner, only fading late on. Last season's form suggests a stiff track and softer ground will see her build on that effort and, if she does, she is on a mark to get very competitive. She steps into all age company for the first time in a handicap but she is open to more improvement than most of these and could yet go some way to proving she is as good as her connections obviously believe.