The runners:
Cloudy Lane ( 9 year old carrying 11-10).
Favourite for the race last year but now finds himself 17 pounds higher in the handicap. Didn't make many errors in 2008 but still ended up being beaten 33 lengths and that did nothing to allay the theory that he doesn't really stay this far. If that is the case he has a hell of a task trying to lump 11-10 to victory. Won the Peter Marsh at Haydock in January but comes here after falling at the first at Kelso last time out. May get round but it's difficult to see him being involved at the business end of the race.
Chelsea Harbour (9 year old carrying 11-8).
Another who is much higher in the handicap compared to last year, in his case ten pounds. Not the biggest of horses and prone to making the odd horlicks. Went well for a long way in 2008 but would prefer the ground much softer than he is likely to get here. Doesn't give the impression of being the fastest of horses and too many negatives to even consider for place purposes. Stays and could get round if his jockey doesn't give up the ghost.
Snowy Morning (9 year old carrying 11-8).
Eleven pounds higher than when running a cracker in 2008. Took to the National fences like an old hand and subsequently went onto Punchestown to run Neptune Colognes to within seven lengths in the Gold Cup Chase. Doesn't come into this race in the same form overall as last season and, although his Trainer may have been keeping something back for another crack at this, he would have to produce a lifetime best to prevail. The tongue tie that was fitted for the first time last time out at Fairyhouse is retained but the fact that it went on in the first place suggests connections were not happy with what they were seeing. Hard to rule out completely given last seasons exploits but his task is much more difficult this time round and his profile doesn't suggest he has improved in the past 12 months.
Knowhere (11 year old carrying 11-7).
Has fallen in each of the last two renewals and his jumping has always been his Achilles Heel. Only one win to his name over further than three miles and likely to make errors as he tires. Good ground will not be a problem and he races off the same mark as last year but distance, weight and the obstacles are all major negatives standing in his way.
Comply Or Die (10 year old carrying 11-6).
Last year's hero whose form picked up when the blinkers were applied in his build up to the race. Similar pattern this year when, after two miserable performances, he went well with the blinkers reapplied in the William Hill Trophy at the Festival. Much better suited by this longer trip nowadays and another step forward cannot be ruled out. However a fifteen pound higher mark and 11-6 are going to be difficult to defy. Four pounds worse off with Snowy Morning and it would be a remarkable feat if he were to be the first back to back winner since Red Rum.
Ollie Magern (11 year old carrying 11-6)
Plenty of victories in his time at around three miles but happiest at the head of affairs or racing very prominently and it's difficult to see him staying there for the duration carrying 11-6. Not the biggest of horses and prone to the odd mistake. Has won only once since October 2005 and has never won in handicap company over both hurdles and fences. Plenty of stats to make him an unlikely winner.
Stan (10 year old carrying 11-6)
Produced a career best when beating Fier Normand in the Sky Bet Chase at Cheltenham in January but in 24 races over fences he has only been seen over three miles on three occasions. He was well beaten every time and they were at Kempton and Ludlow, hardly stamina sapping tracks. Runs from a career high mark of 154 carrying 11-6 and doesn't seem as though he will get today's trip in a horse box. Add to that a poor effort last time out and, in the circumstances, 100/1 looks skinny.
Black Apalachi (10 year old carrying 11-5)
Fell early last year but he comes into this seasons renewal in the best form of his life. Won two of his last four starts and can be forgiven the other two efforts (one was on his seasonal reappearance and the other was over hurdles after a short break). Hacked up over these fences in the Becher Chase in November but that has resulted in him being out up 15 pounds for this. Approaches his racing with zest, stays well and his fall in this race last year was his only one in 22 races over fences. On the downside, although he ran well on good ground at Leopardstown last season and Punchestown this, all his victories have come when the going has had soft or heavy in the description. If he handles underfoot conditions then his demolition of Snowy Morning last time out suggests he is a serious player, despite his weight.
Hear The Echo (8 year old carrying 11-5)
Winner of the Irish National last season but that has resulted in the assessor allocating him a mark of 153 for this. His campaign this season has consisted of three hurdle races before a return to fences resulted in him unseating his jockey last time out. Suffered two falls back in 2007 and, his unexpected Irish National win aside, he doesn't have the profile of a horse who will find winning a race of this nature from this far up the handicap very easy.
Priest's Leap (9 year old carrying 11-5)
Wouldn't win many marks for consistency but when he's good he is capable of producing high class form. The winner of the Thyestes fro the last two years in heavy ground but has been rarely seen under faster conditions. Doesn't look particularly well handicapped on a mark of 153 and there must be a likelihood that he will be taken off his feet, even over this distance. However he could be open to improvement over this kind of trip and his chances probably depend on his ability to handle the ground.
My Will (9 year old carrying 11-4)
Laid out for this race and comes into it with a fifth in the Gold Cup to his name. However a single figure price owes just as much to connections as it does to his inherent ability. Only fallen once since his Novice days but does have the tendency to wallop a few. Unlike a lot of French breds he seems to stay well. He is undeniably classy and well handicapped but he has never won a race in a field containing more than 12 runners (7 of his eight victories have come in fields of seven or less) and only one of those victories came in ground faster than G/S. Probably deserves his place at the head of the market but has to prove he is over the exertions of the Festival and likely to be over bet. Enough negatives to look elsewhere given his price.
Eurotrek (13 year old carrying 11-3)
Veteran but only been seen 12 times in total. A winner of 4 of his 8 starts over fences but hasn't been seen since pulling up in this race two years ago. High profile owner/stable are unlikely to have kept him in training if he didn't retain a decent level of ability but it would be some feat to get him involved after such a long lay off. Handicapper has only relented to the tune of three pounds but he was the easy winner of the Becher Chase over these fences back in 2006 so he may have a few supporters.
State Of Play (9 year old carrying 11-2)
Only had two races this season but looks to have been kept fresh for this race and, as a horse who goes well after a break, that is to his advantage. He looks on a very feasible handicap mark, handles good ground and all five of his Chase victories have come over 24-27 furlongs. Has a sixth in the Gold Cup to his name and the feeling is that he could be in as good form as ever. Everything points to a big run provided he takes to this unique test, and he should be traveling well and giving everything else a lot to think about come the sharp end of the race. Big player.
Big Fella Thanks (7 year old carrying 11-1)
Would have to be a stats buster to prevail but comes from a stable who have little regard for trends. Jumps well enough, stays at least three miles (promises to stay much further) and comes into this race on the back of two good efforts. Looks on the upgrade but no Novice has won this race since 1958 and no seven year old has won since 1940. Looks a horse of serious potential and this could be a stepping stone for further renewals, but he only jumped his first ever fence in October, and this will surely be too big an ask for one so inexperienced.
Mon Mome (9 year old carrying 11-0)
Well beaten in this race last year and has to race from seven pounds higher this time round. Comes here in poor form and conditions are likely to be faster than ideal. Exposed and nothing in the from book to suggest he can win this from a career high mark.
Silver Birch (12 year old carrying 11-0)
Winner in 2007 but injured last season and would need to find the best of his old form and more to get competitive from a mark of 148 (ten pounds higher than from which he won). Nothing to suggest he can do that as a 12 year old and would probably be bigger than 66/1 if it were not for that previous victory.
Butler's Cabin (9 year old carrying 10-13)
He was cruising when coming down at Becher's 2nd time round last year (made a mistake at the same fence on the 1st circuit), and carries 4lb less this year. Tony McCoy has ridden French Bred runners in each of the last 11 National, and no French bred has won the race since 1909, although many have gone close. He ran an eyecatching race at Cheltenham, staying on well at the end, and the stable couldn’t be in better form. Some may say that the value has gone, but he was only available at 14/1 a month ago, and now that we know he definitely lines up an all is well, the 9/1 looks more than fair. Provided he can get past Becher's this time around, he should go very close.