Far from being a lottery, as many still believe, the Grand National often follows statistical trends. Several of these are strong and, although they are not cast in stone, it would be unwise to ignore them without consideration.

It seems obvious to say but stamina is a big factor and it's almost a necessity that the horse has winning form over three miles or more. It also has to have sound tactical pace. With the ground riding just on the soft side of good it's imperative that a horse gets into a good early rhythm and keeps the trailblazers within sight.

Weight has also been a crucial factor In the past two decades no horse has carried more than 11-1 to victory. As the standard of horses targeting the National continues to increase this could, in the future, lead to a compressing of the weights and this stat may be defied when they do.

This race is not suited either to the young or old generation (in Chasing terms). It has been nearly 70 years since a horse younger than eight won the Grand National. Experience is also a big advantage because it is 50 years since a Novice won the race, and he was an eight year old. Horses aged 8 and 12 shouldn't be discounted but the winner is more likely to be aged between 9 and 11.

Horses are being trained specifically for this race more often nowadays. However the winner often comes from those that have not been over raced in the current season. Conversely the selection should be fit and race hardened. Horses with 4-6 runs in the season do best and every winner of the race in recent years had an outing within 50 days of the race.

This is not a race normally suited by those with headgear, especially worn by those that like to come from off the pace. 146 have taken part since 1975 and only two have prevailed, one of those being last years winner, Comply or Die. Prior to that only one horse had achieved the feat since the war, and that was the fortunate Foinavon.

Recent seasons have been dominated by the Irish who have won six of the last ten renewals.

Selections:

Butler’s Cabin - 1 pt win. Available at 9/1 (General)
State of Play – 1 point e/w @ 14/1 (General) 4th 14/1;D
Parson's Legacy - 1 pt win. Available at 18/1 (General)
Battlecry - 0.5 points e/w at 50/1 (General)
Brooklyn Brownie - 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 33/1 (General)
Offshore Account - 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 33/1 (Betfred)