29-03-2009, 01:12 PM

The win of Even Flo and the place money returned by Lytham, meant that yesterday ended in a profit once more on a very difficult day.

Today’s bets:

KORALEVA TECTONA (Doncaster 3.05) - 1 point E/W
14/1 available at VC Bet and William Hill
MINORITY REPORT (Doncaster 3.05) - 0.5 points E/W 3rd 14/1

Bit of a minefield but with both Pat Eddery's horses running well yesterday he may have his horses forward enough for Koraleva Tectona to make her presence felt. It's difficult to predict fillies when the weather isn't too warm at this time of year but she ran well enough on her seasonal debut last year and proved progressive through the campaign. She still looks reasonably weighted and, as a horse who can take a grip and stays a mile, she will appreciate the decent El Dececy is likely to set for those drawn high. Minority Report was fighting a losing battle with the handicapper when he left Luca Cumani but he had fallen 17 pounds through last season for current connections when he scored at Musselburgh in September. He hinted over a mile at Haydock last June that he was capable of competing from higher in the handicap and he could go well today from a mark of 80. he is not the yard's first string on jockey bookings but that is not always a reliable indicator when dealing with this stable.

I’M DELILAH (Kelso 3.15) - 3 point win 2nd 5/2
7/2 available at Blue Square
STARR FLYER (Kelso 3.15) - 2 point win
7/1 generally available

Description is likely to go well but burdened with a 15 pound rise for two easy wins he is taken on with I'm Delilah and Starr Flyer. I'm Delilah comes into the race on the back of her first win over hurdles and that followed an equally admirable effort in running the progressive Fairyland to within a length at Doncaster. Both those races were on good ground and the slight step up in trip today could bring further improvement. She has a good attitude and, if she is on the premises late on, anything that beats her is likely to have to battle for the privilege. She represents a yard with a 21% strike rate at this track returning £30 in recent seasons. Starr Flyer lost his jockey after being hampered last time out at Ludlow but had previously returned his best effort at Stratford. That came off a strong pace and the presence of a few front runners today may help his cause. The handicapper has raised him three pounds since but this is only his seventh race over hurdes and he is open to improvement. His flat orientated yard send their only horse at the races today on a whopping 615 mile round trip to take part in this.

ADVANCED (Doncaster 4.15) - 0.5 points E/W 2nd 8/1

JOSEPH HENRY (Doncaster 4.15) - 0.5 points E/W
25/1 available at Ladbrokes and Blue Square

Another minefield but two that take the eye at big prices are Advanced and Joseph Henry, even though both could have been better drawn. Advanced hasn't been seen in many handicaps in recent seasons but there is plenty of evidence in his form book to suggest he is well handicapped on a mark of 95. He may prefer the ground a bit softer but he handles good ground and a strongly run race at this trip suits. His seven pound claimer shouldn't put people off. She may be inexperienced but her 6 wins from 29 rides demonstrates her talent. Advanced has a mixed record after a break and hasn't always gone well at this track but at a price he looks worth risking with a small wager. Joseph henry goes well fresh and, although he rarely wins, he is very consistent. He goes on any ground and likes the decent gallop these large fields generate. His losing run is getting longer but he couldn't be ruled out over a C/D where he has run well on four previous visits.
Last edited by abbeylands; Yesterday at 10:44 AM.


31-03-2009, 12:18 PM

Today’s bets:

TRAFALGAR MAN (Wetherby 2.00) - 1 point E/W
8/1 generally available

In a trappy race finding the winner is not easy, despite the withdrawal of two of the market principals. The one that appeals more than most sits at the top of the race card. Trafalgar Man could now be on a decent mark if he retains the level of form he showed in maiden/novice company two years ago. He unseated his rider early on over fences on his return from a thirteen month break in December and, given another three month break, he ran reasonably well returned to hurdles at Sedgefield earlier this month in a race which may have been needed. He handles good ground or faster so underfoot conditions here shouldn't pose a problem and his effort in a handicap over two miles here in October 2007 reads very well in the context of this race. He represents a yard who have never been prolific winners but they have booked one of the more experienced Conditional jockey's in the field.

PETER’S PRIDE (Wetherby 3.05) - 2 point win
4/1 generally available
JAYNE’S CRUSADER (Wetherby 3.05) - 1 point E/W 1st 9/1 - early price 14/1 freely available
16/1 available at William Hill

Given the level of form he showed in Bumpers and his progressive profile over hurdles, Peter's Pride probably provides the most compelling argument for the winner of this race. A line through Description doesn't give him a lot in hand over Lily Tara at these weights but he promises more now he steps further up in trip. It was on the fastest ground he has yet encountered over hurdles that he ran Description (a winner from 15 pounds higher since) to within five lengths and there was a long gap after the first three home. It's debatable whether a six pound rise is harsh. It wouldn't be judged on the subsequent exploits of the winner but may not be so good viewed through the third. However the booking of Graham Lee suggests the stable may be keen to improve on their dismal 1 from 87 record here in recent seasons. At a bigger price Jayne's Crusader may be worth a small interest. His form figures are not inspiring but he was a progressive Bumper performer on faster ground last season and it wasn't a bad effort he returned in a Novice race on his only previous visit to this track. His two disappointments since could be put down to a combination of ground/trip/coming back from a break and he may be worth another chance now he gets better ground over a new distance. The handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 98 and, judged solely on that Novice race here, that could be one from which he can compete if he is capable of reproducing the form. The booking of an excellent, in form five pound Claimer is a positive move, although the yard are winless here from 23 entries in recent seasons.

PIPBROOK GOLD (Folkestone 4.35) - 3 point win 3rd 3/1 :waaaht:
7/2 generally available

Only six runners but even outsider, Triple Dream, couldn't be ruled out with confidence. Pipbrook Gold was disappointing when last seen on turf at Goodwood in October but he has shown enough on the A/W since to suggest he is capable of better. He returns to grass on a nine pound lower mark than at Goodwood and his Maiden form prior to that reversal was good enough to believe a mark of 69 is well within his capabilities. He finished 6/11 on his return from a four month break last time out but he wasn't beaten far and that may have set him up nicely for this. A winner over a mile, the absence of a natural front runner is a slight concern but, granted an even or better gallop, Pipbrook Gold should be on the premises at the business end of the race.
Last edited by abbeylands; Yesterday at 10:41 AM.

31-03-2009, 02:07 PM

Yesterday, 12:42 PM

Another good day yesterday as Jayne’s Crusader provided another big-priced winner.

Today’s bets:

TOP TIGER (Catterick 2.50) - 1 point E/W
20/1 available at Blue Square

Top Tiger can never be anything other than a speculative bet. He is inconsistent and in 17 races has only managed one win and three placings.Add to that two dismal efforts on the fibresand recently and you wouldn't want to be chucking much money at him. However the last time he was seen on turf back in October at Redcar he didn't run badly from a ten pound higher mark in a better race than this. That was over 14 furlongs and, the way he was staying on there, it's a surprise he steps up to today's trip for the first time. He is the yard's first runner on turf this season and they have had a mixed record with their early runners in recent years. Top Tiger has also never raced on ground this fast, so there are plenty of negatives surrounding him, but he is undoubtedly a well handicapped horse who could improve for this trip under a very capable three pound claimer.

ANCIENT CROSS (Catterick 3.50) - 1 point E/W
14/1 available at Blue Square

Although it's probably preferable to be drawn low over this trip it's not a massive disadvantage to be drawn elsewhere and from stall 11 Ancient Cross takes the eye. He ran well on his seasonal reappearance last year and didn't run a poor race in six subsequent races on turf until disappointing on his final start at Ayr. That came in heavy ground in first time blinkers so he probably had viable excuses. The fact he has gone ten races without winning will have the alarm bells ringing for many, and he was called a few names last season, but most of the handicaps he has taken in have been of better quality than today's event. The closest he came to winning was on this grade over six furlongs where he was finishing with some purpose and it's hard to say he is ungenuine. He is versatile regarding ground conditions, seven furlongs will suit and there is plenty of evidence to suggest he can be very effective in this class from his current mark.

OLIVINO (Exeter 4.10) - 2 points E/W
8/1 generally available

Yes it was a very weak Seller in which he was eventually well beaten last timeout but it was encouraging to see him travel very kindly for much of the 20 furlong journey and, being just his second run back from a very long absence, he can be expected to come on again for that run. The jockey wasn't hard on him (retains the ride today) and he is now down to a mark of 85. He wouldn't need to retain the ability he was showing in Maiden hurdle races back in 2006 to be very effective from that rating. The return to quicker ground and drop back in trip are both positive factors and he faces some very moderate oposition again this afternoon. At around 8/1 he looks a bit of value.

ATHANIA (Kempton 8.20) - 1 point E/W
12/1 generally available

bad yesterday - but will persevere ...
Today’s bets:

MADISON DU BERLAIS (Aintree 3.10) - 1 point E/W 1st 12/1
14/1 generally available
AIR FORCE ONE (Aintree 3.10) - 1 point E/W
20/1 generally available

If the reports concerning Denman bear fruition then he is likely to win this but there must be a chance that his remarkable effort in the Gold Cup has left it's mark given the problems he has suffered this season. There wouldn't be a more popular winner but, at the relevant prices, Madison Du Berlais and Air Force One, appeal more. Madison Du Berlais also has to recover from his exertions in the Gold Cup and, in his case, has to bounce back from a disappointing effort. It is now becoming increasingly likely that he doesn't perform to his best on undulating tracks and it may be worth chancing that he can return to form on this course. He may not be as good as his rating suggests, because that is based on his demolition of an under par Denman at Kempton in February, but he has probably improved since he beat Air Force One last November, although at today's weights it could be close between the pair. Air Force One has been beaten a total of 109 lengths in his last two outings, the last the Gold Cup. He was never happy at any point in the King George prior to that and it takes a leap of faith to support him. However 24/25 furlongs on good ground on a speed orientated track will suit and he was a progressive individual leading up to Christmas.

LESLINGTAYLOR (Aintree 4.20) - 2 point win 4th 7/1 :waaaht:
15/2 available at Blue Square
I’M SO LUCKY (Aintree 4.20) - 1 point E/W
18/1 available at William Hill

A fiercely competitive large field handicap and one in which luck in running may play a part. Leslingtaylor was well beaten in this race last year, and hadn't shown much over obstacles subsequently, before he returned to form with a vengeance last time out at Doncaster. He came from off the pace to beat Bambi D'Lorme by nearly four lengths and the manner of that victory suggests he will take care of that rival again on four pounds worse terms. He may have to do it racing more prominently on this track but he has been effective when doing so in the past. All his wins over obstacles have come on G/S ground or faster so the drying conditions are in his favour. Still relatively lightly raced over fences he looks capable of improving further and a mark of 138 looks a rating he can cope with. At a much bigger price I'm So Lucky was a progressive Novice Chaser last year, and judged on that form, he should be effective from his current mark of 141. He has been beaten in both his handicaps but gives the impression that a decent gallop on good ground over two miles on a flat track are parameters that will bring out the best in him. His powerful yard have been in good form in recent weeks and a return to form by their lightly raced Chaser couldn't be ruled out.

TARTAK (Aintree 4.55) - 2 point win 1st 11/2
6/1 generally available

Chapoturgeon has been impressive in winning his last two races but he is up significantly in the weights for his victory at Cheltenham and he doesn't make much appeal at a short price. Planet Of Sound looks likely to be suited by stepping up in trip and he will have a say if he puts in a clean round. However he does have his frailties in the jumping department and a safer bet may be Tartak. He was behind Planet Of Sound in the Arkle but he suffered traffic problems and could get closer to that rival today. He has been progressive over the past 12 months and his prominent racing style will be suited to this course. He has yet to race on ground faster than G/S but, if he handles underfoot conditions, he could put his ability to stay further to good use. He is likely top have to give best to Deep Purple early on but he is likely to stay much better than that rival. He comes from a yard who have been in very good form over the past couple of months and he will not fail for lack of assistance from the saddle.

BEDLAM BOY (Aintree 5.30) - 0.5 points E/W 3rd 28/1
33/1 available at Sportingbet and Coral
CALATAGAN (Aintree 5.30) - 0.5 points E/W
40/1 available at Coral

This will probably go to one of the younger progressive types but two that have been giving the impression of running into form are the older, more exposed Bedlam Boy and Calatagan. Bedlam Boy didn't run as badly as the distance he was beaten by in the County Hurdle suggests last time out. He made up some eye-catching ground late on over a trip which is probably on the short side for him and he will appreciate stepping back up in distance. He was a decent third over C/D in a Novice hurdle last season and the likely strong pace this race generates will suit him. Calatagan is quite capable of throwing a moody but at a huge price he is difficult to ignore. He has been seen mainly over fences in recent seasons but he is rated much lower over hurdles and he showed at Doncaster in January that he is no back number over the smaller obstacles. He only failed narrowly there over today's trip and he hasn't had many chances over this sort of distance. Although he has his failures beyond 16/17 furlongs, he stayed well on the flat, and it's surprising he hasn't been tried over further more often. Given his inconsistency it's encouraging to see that he has returned two good efforts in his latest outings and he could run much better here than the layers believe he will.
Last edited by abbeylands; Today at 06:38 PM. Reason: Update of results

WALKON sat Aintree will not get beat.

Jamie Spencer should have a good day at Leciester
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say we've got Rowna Vine
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Not sure what's happening but can't post on blogs and can't post here under my usual name. Perhaps I have been banned but waiting for MYU to confirm. Perhaps I have been naughty and don't know it - yet!! If resolved will revert to blog - or just leave quietly.

Anyway - today’s bets for those interested.

RED MALONEY (Aintree 2.00) - 2 point win
11/2 available at William Hill

Very useful on the flat at up to 14 furlongs (rated 110 at his peak) but doesn't lack speed. His desire/attitude was sometimes questioned when the chips were down but there has been no signs of him shirking the issue since he has gone hurdling and he didn't lose any face when 5 lengths 6/20 in the Supreme Novices at the Festival. That was his first defeat in four outings over the smaller obstacles but he travelled as well as anything into the latter stages of the race and it may have been inexperience which saw him outpaced at a vital stage. The leaders certainly weren't going away from him at the line and he may be more race savvy today. Although his flat form suggests a stiffer test would suit, the way he travels could be suited to a fast run two miles and he may have a better turn of foot than the majority of this opposition. He has around two lengths to make up with Somersby but he was going better than that rival for the majority of the trip at Cheltenham and he could find the demands of this test more to his liking. He has to prove he has recovered from the exertions of the Festival but the same can be said of his principal rivals. More of a concern is the stable's form because they have had a number who have not seen out their races in recent weeks.

SIEGEMASTER (Aintree 2.35) - 1 point E/W 3rd 11/2 ;D

10/1 generally available

Herecomesthetruth and Massini's Maguire probably set the standard here but the former is a short price for a race of this nature and the latter has never really convinced over this sort of trip (all wins have come over shorter). Siegemaster comes with his own negatives but he does give the impression that he has more to offer than he has so far shown. He was a faller before the race got serious in the RSA at Cheltenham and his jumping is a concern. He has been seen mainly on much softer ground but he does handle faster conditions and he has a serious engine when things go well. His prominent racing style will be suited to this track and, if he can get into an early rhythm, he could go very well. The cheekpieces he wore for the first time at the Festival are retained. An entry into the Grade One Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse in nine days time shows the esteem to which he is held by connections.

BIBLE LORD (Aintree 3.45) - 0.5 points E/W
40/1 available at Betfred and Coral
BISHOP’S BRIDGE (Aintree 3.45) - 0.5 points E/W
40/1 generally available
ALWAYS WAINING (Aintree 3.45) - 0.5 points E/W 4th 25/1 ;D
50/1 generally available

It's difficult to be bullish about anything in a race like this but there have been enough bigger priced winners in recent seasons to make it worth spreading small stakes amongst a number of runners. Bible Lord has won 4 of his 16 races over fences but he has arguably promised more than he has so far delivered. His progress has been hampered by his jumping and that is obviously a concern in this race. However he may just treat these obstacles with a bit more respect and, if he starts enjoying himself, he certainly has the ability to win from his current mark. He is versatile regarding ground conditions but, no disrespect to his jockey, he may be better under a more established pilot. Even so, he appeals as a likely outsider if he jumps proficiently. Bishop's Bridge is reaching veteran stage but he has been in the best form of his career over the past couple of seasons. His last win at Huntingdon in November was his best to date, and he races from just a two pound higher mark today. He has unseated his jockey twice in 20 chases, but has never fallen, and is normally a safe jumper. Versatile regarding ground conditions he represents a stable in very good form. Always Waining comes into this race having pulled up in his last three outings and is usually seen racing over further. However all three of those disappointments came in soft ground and it looks likely they placed too much emphasis on stamina. He will be suited by the return to better ground and he is a clever jumper who could relish taking on these obstacles. The return of the jockey who has ridden him to his last four victories (wasn't on board for any of his last three races) could also perk him up.

ON RAGLAN ROAD (Aintree 4.20) - 1 point E/W
12/1 GENERALLY available

The way he finished in the Ballymore Novices at Cheltenham suggests Karabak will be suited by this step up in trip and he looks the one to beat. He is a relatively short price to prevail but it's debatable whether this faster track improves his chances, despite the longer distance. On Raglan Road was behind a few of these in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival but he was bang there at the bottom of the hill and it wouldn't be a surprise if he were to reverse from with Pride Of Dulcote and Weapon's Amnesty on this flatter track. The ground here will be faster but he beat Dunguib in Good/Yielding conditions in a Bumper and he doesn't have the action of a horse who will be greatly inconvenienced by today's going. Stable mate of Red Maloney and the concerns regarding stable form are the same.

CAPTAIN AMERICO (Aintree 4.55) - 2 point win
7/1 generally available
LIBERATE (Aintree 4.55) - 1 point E/W
16/1 generally available