Why do people think Smith should start out of curiosity? Like, I get it when Sylla was on the bench, but Smith has 4 goals in 423 minutes off the bench since joining us and two assists. In the 1237 minutes he's started since joining, he's scored 5 goals... Off the bench, he's involved in goals at a rate of a goal involvement every 70.5 mins. When he starts, he's got a goal involvement every 247.4 mins (a goal almost every 3 games). He averages less than half an hour a game off the bench and he creates so much more in that period of time that it'd be wasting him to play him against fit defenders from the get go. Meanwhile you have Sylla who's got 6 goals in 513 sub minutes for the club but has 8 goals and 1 assist in the remaining time he starts for us (1613 mins) aka a goal involvement every 179 minutes or a goal involvement every other game he starts.
The less said about Washington's scoring record, the better, but what we see is that we have two players there who are good coming off the bench but only one of them is actually a true starter at this level. Play with one striker, it's allowed, and bring on the other one if we haven't scored yet. You don't need to play one off another from the get go, you need to not waste chances and if it doesn't work, then you change strategies and bring on the big guy Smith. Clearly when he's on the pitch, we play more long passes up and more often than not, that works only when he's off the bench.
Just for proof of that, since I do love my numbers: When Smith plays off the bench, he's won 52 out of 99 aerial duels (52.5% success) in 353 minutes this season off the bench. When he starts, he's won only 21 out of 51 aerial duels (41.1% success) in 226 minutes. His record is worse in the second half than it is in the first and we lose our contingency plan because he tires out. He wins more headers per minute played off the bench, so why should we hinder his main purpose when we could just start sylla alone and play freeman right behind him, Let Luongo and Scowen win the ball and carry it forward to those two and the wingers. 4231 all the way for me looking something like this.
Smithies
Furlong Baptiste Robinson Bidwell (At least until Onuoha is back)
Luongo Scowen
Wszolek Freeman Lua Lua (maybe this formation might even get more out of Yeni)
Sylla
Off the bench later on we bring on Smith for a new outlet which basically cuts the running needed by our midfield so they don't tire out and bring someone like cousins on to keep the pressure and urgency up in the final few minutes.
The less said about Washington's scoring record, the better, but what we see is that we have two players there who are good coming off the bench but only one of them is actually a true starter at this level. Play with one striker, it's allowed, and bring on the other one if we haven't scored yet. You don't need to play one off another from the get go, you need to not waste chances and if it doesn't work, then you change strategies and bring on the big guy Smith. Clearly when he's on the pitch, we play more long passes up and more often than not, that works only when he's off the bench.
Just for proof of that, since I do love my numbers: When Smith plays off the bench, he's won 52 out of 99 aerial duels (52.5% success) in 353 minutes this season off the bench. When he starts, he's won only 21 out of 51 aerial duels (41.1% success) in 226 minutes. His record is worse in the second half than it is in the first and we lose our contingency plan because he tires out. He wins more headers per minute played off the bench, so why should we hinder his main purpose when we could just start sylla alone and play freeman right behind him, Let Luongo and Scowen win the ball and carry it forward to those two and the wingers. 4231 all the way for me looking something like this.
Smithies
Furlong Baptiste Robinson Bidwell (At least until Onuoha is back)
Luongo Scowen
Wszolek Freeman Lua Lua (maybe this formation might even get more out of Yeni)
Sylla
Off the bench later on we bring on Smith for a new outlet which basically cuts the running needed by our midfield so they don't tire out and bring someone like cousins on to keep the pressure and urgency up in the final few minutes.
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